By Erik Berglöf
AS COVID-19 infections continue to rise in much of the world, many are clinging to the hope that a vaccine will soon restore life as we knew it. That is wishful thinking. Even if an effective vaccine is found, COVID-19 will be with us for the foreseeable future at least for the next five years. We are going to have to learn to live with it.
An international panel of scientists and social scientists, convened by the Wellcome Trust, recently constructed four pandemic scenarios. Key variables included what we may learn about the biology of SARS-CoV-2(or the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19) such as the pace of mutation and the extent to which an infection elicits antibodies and how fast we develop and deploy effective vaccines, and antivirals and other treatments.
The study then considered how each of these four scenarios would unfold in five general settings: high-, middle-, and low-income countries, as well as conflict zones, and vulnerable environments like refugee camps and prisons.
Not even in the most optimistic of the four scenarios characterized by a relatively stable virus, effective vaccines, and improved antiviral therapies will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated in all five settings within five years, though community transmission could be eliminated within certain boundaries. And as long as one setting is experiencing a COVID-19 outbreak, all settings are vulnerable. As the study shows, eradicating the virus and ending the medical emergency will require not only a vaccine that cuts transmission, but also effective treatments and rapid, accurate tests. Such a medical toolkit would have to be made available and affordable to every country, and be deployed in a manner that leveraged global experience and engaged local communities.
Yet at the moment, only one of the nine leading vaccine candidates stops the spread of the virus; the others aim merely to limit COVID-19’s severity. Moreover, while treatments for moderate and severe cases have significantly improved, they remain unsatisfactory. And testing is flawed, expensive, and subject to supply-chain weaknesses.
With such an imperfect medical toolkit, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and mask wearing, are vital. Fortunately, most countries have recognized the critical importance of early action, imposing strict rules to protect public health fairly rapidly. Many have also provided strong economic support, in order to protect lives and livelihoods amid lockdowns.
But short-term emergency measures like blanket lockdowns are not a sustainable solution. Few countries especially in the emerging and developing world can afford to lock down their economies, let alone keep recommended policies in place until an effective vaccine is widely available.
Such measures are merely supposed to slow down transmission and buy time for policymakers and healthcare professionals to identify vulnerabilities and, guided by input from the social sciences, devise innovative medium-and long-term strategies suited to local conditions. Unfortunately, this time has not been used particularly wisely so far, with policymakers preferring to imitate one another’s solutions, rather than apply lessons creatively in ways that account for local conditions.
– The Daily Mail-China Daily news exchange item
