By Guy Burton
Will 2021 be a year of reckoning for Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan? The last few months have seen a number of developments both at the regional and domestic level, which could check Erdogan’s assertiveness. They include differences with the global hegemon, the U.S., as well as other players in the region like the UAE, Russia, France and Greece. Domestically, there are challenges coming from both rivals and supporters, against a deteriorating economy and health situation resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Externally, relations between Turkey and the U.S. may be about to get a lot tougher. Erdogan has had a good personal relationship with the outgoing American president, Donald Trump. But on January 20 he will be replaced by Joe Biden. Biden is expected to be much cooler with Erdogan than Trump was, but the transition only explains part of the story. There are tensions which go beyond personality and which will present difficulties regardless of who is in charge.
The challenges between the U.S. and Turkey run along several fronts. One is American support for the Kurds in northern Syria. While the Americans have accommodated their greater autonomy vis-à-vis the Syrian government, Ankara is wary, lest it serve as a motivation for its own Kurdish population at home.
Another problem is Erdogan’s frustration at the lack of American action against his political rival, Fethullah Gulen and his associates, who he believes was behind the 2016 coup attempt. Additionally, Gulen’s residency in the U.S. is sore point, especially given the U.S. failure to extradite him.
Finally, there are tensions over sanctions-related matters. The Turkish state-owned Halkbank, is currently being prosecuted by the U.S. for allowing Iran to evade sanctions between 2012-16. More recently, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on Turkey’s defense procurement agency for buying Russian military hardware.
Erdogan’s problems are not limited to the U.S. alone. In the region tensions are likely to continue with important Arab parties like the UAE and fellow NATO member states like France and Greece. Although the recent resolution of the Gulf dispute ended tensions between Turkey’s Qatari partner against Saudi Arabia and the UAE, it has not done so between Turkey and the UAE. Their rivalry is multi-dimensional, including competition for influence in the Horn of Africa, their contrary stance on political Islam and the Muslim Brotherhood as well as Israel – which the UAE agreed a normalization deal with last summer.
Turkey’s differences with France and Greece concern Ankara’s claims in the eastern Mediterranean as well as Turkish intervention in Libya. This last point is also one which Russia shares, even as the two have managed to achieve a modus vivendi in recent years. Both have been on opposite sides of the Syrian and Libyan conflicts. But while Turkish support to the Libya Government of National Accord helped contain the advance by the Russian-backed eastern forces last year, in Syria the stability of the past few years now threatens to come undone as Russia’s Syrian partner looks to exert control over the rebel forces based in Idlib province – which are under Turkish protection.
Turkey also faces pushback in the Caucasus as well. Having backed Azerbaijan in its recent war with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Turkey now finds itself being excluded from post-conflict deliberations as Russia looks to reassert its position as the principal foreign actor.
Domestically, Erdogan has also faced pressure, both from the opposition as well as from his allies on the political right. Recently, the far-right National Movement Party (MHP), which supports Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in parliament, has demanded that the government ban the Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) for its supposed links to the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party (PKK). The demand needs to be listened to as the AKP does not have a majority in parliament and relies on MHP votes.
–The Daily Mail-CGTN News Exchange Item
