By LUKE COFFEY
Large-scale protests continue to take place across Russia in response to the arrest and conviction of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Social media is full of videos showing protesters being violently subdued, beaten and detained by Russian security forces. More than 5,000 people have been arrested this week alone.
For years, Russian President Vladimir Putin and those around him insisted that Navalny was not a threat. His role in leading the main political opposition against the Kremlin was always downplayed. The recent actions taken by the Russian government prove the opposite to be the case, however. Navalny has been on the Russian political scene for years and has served as the de facto leader of the opposition for about a decade. He has grown in popularity mostly through his use of social media, on which he has millions of followers, to expose the corruption of Putin and his cronies.
In an assassination attempt in August 2020, Russian security forces poisoned Navalny in eastern Russia with Novichok, a military-grade nerve agent. He was transported to a hospital in Germany in the nick of time and recovered. To the surprise of many, Navalny and his wife decided to return to Russia last month. Upon arrival, he was arrested on dubious charges.
Ever defiant, on the night of his arrest he called for his compatriots to “take to the streets.” Many of them obliged. Since then tens of thousands of citizens have taken part in demonstrations in towns and cities across Russia.
On Feb. 2, as he sat in a glass box in a crowded courtroom, he was handed a prison sentence of almost three years. As the judge read the ruling, Navalny stood defiantly, a smile on his face, and made a “heart” sign with his hands to his wife.
His conviction and prison sentence mark a turning point in the Kremlin’s thinking. Although he had been arrested numerous times, until now the Russian authorities were hesitant to send him to prison. There was concern that doing so would turn him into a political martyr, potentially making him even more dangerous to the Kremlin.
This calculus has changed. Because of all the international attention Navalny has brought to his case, and because of the massive turnout of protesters on the streets across Russia, the Kremlin now believes him to be a bigger threat outside of prison then he is behind bars. Time will tell if this assumption is correct.
Putin’s crackdown on Navalny and the political opposition means relations between Russia and the US under the Biden administration are off to a bad start. During President Joe Biden’s first telephone call with his Russian counterpart, a few days after his inauguration, he raised the issue of Navalny’s poisoning. The US State Department has also been clear in its condemnation of the crackdown on, and arbitrary arrests of, protesters across Russia. The sentiment has been shared by many of America’s partners in Europe.
Practically speaking, there is very little the US and its allies can do to influence Navalny’s fate — but remaining silent could be seen as tacit approval. It is possible for the US and its partners to implement targeted economic sanctions against those responsible for Navalny’s arrest and the crackdown on peaceful protesters. However, doing so is unlikely to change Moscow’s behavior.
It is also important that US and other Western policymakers keep their eyes wide open when it comes to Navalny. While there is little doubt that he genuinely wants to fight corruption and bring democratic reforms to his country, his views on Russian foreign policy are strikingly similar to those of Putin. In fact, Navalny supported some of the most contentious Russian foreign policy acts that created the most friction between the West and the Kremlin.
In 2008, he supported Russia’s invasion of Georgia, and once called for Georgians to be kicked out of Russia. In 2014, he supported the illegal annexation of Crimea by Moscow — which is considered by the international community to be part of Ukraine.
Despite coming across as a progressive and liberal-minded politician, Navalny has shown disdain for some minority groups. In a blog post he once used a racist term to describe Georgians (he later apologized for this). He has called for immigrants from Central Asia to be deported — seemingly tone deaf to the historical echoes that words such as “deportation” have for some minority groups in Russia, especially those that are Muslim. He has also compared people from the predominately Muslim North Caucasus to cockroaches. –AN
