By SPYRIDON LITSAS
Even though, for many decades, the nature of the post-Cold War polarity was a topic of dispute among the international relations community, nowadays almost no one denies that humanity is experiencing a multipolar systemic condition. In other words, more than two great powers — i.e., the US, China and Russia — compete with and antagonize each other for global dominance under the constant reminder of the mutual assured destruction (MAD) doctrine. Without a doubt, due to the systemic conditions, we live in interesting times, with new opportunities arising for those actors that have been used to living in the shadow of the great powers.
Multipolarity feeds systemic antagonism between the main protagonists in the international arena, but the MAD doctrine guarantees that this friction cannot culminate in a nuclear military confrontation. Thus, conventional military friction has become trendy once again, meaning alliances and interstate cooperation are once again at the forefront of diplomatic endeavors. It does not matter if you are a “small” or a “medium” state. Actually, it never did, but what truly matters, especially nowadays, is whether or not a state has a stable political status, a modernizing economy and a well-trained army.
The Middle East is a region that, since the early 20th century, has never had the opportunity to search for security and prosperity amid a peaceful status quo. However, things were never more unstable than when the region entered the so-called Arab Spring era. The regional actors that managed to maintain internal stability and continue the modernization of their economies now enjoy an undisputed form of primacy, making them the apple of discord for the great powers. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are the three main players that constitute the elite of the Arab world. They, together with Israel, seem able and willing to lead the Middle East toward a safer, more prosperous and technologically advanced new era.
According to Stephen Walt, states form alliances to balance threat, balance power and exercise “bandwagoning.” However, today it seems more and more possible to claim that great powers are constantly searching for allies to maintain their prestige and status in the international arena. They need reliable allies that will stand by their side in case of political and military antagonism and empower them in every possible way.
Great powers need reliable allies that will stand by their side in case of political and military antagonism.
Since the early days of 2020, in various articles, conferences and lectures, I have supported the view that the coronavirus pandemic — this black swan phenomenon of our times — is casting a long shadow not only on public health but also on international politics. In the post-COVID-19 era, we will see the invigoration of systemic friction between the three great powers for reasons that mainly have to do with the structural illustration of the international environment — i.e., anarchic and antagonistic but not chaotic. The return of antagonism at the highest level of the international structure means that the great powers will either seek to renew their alliances or establish new networks in key regions of the globe, such as the greater eastern Mediterranean, which includes the Middle East and North Africa.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE play a significant role in the Arab world. One of the reasons for this is the special relationship these two states share, which enhances their joint diplomatic and military functioning whenever necessary. The case of the conflict in Yemen is an example that shows the tremendous geostrategic value of their relationship. The ability of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to conceive their future in terms of progressive modernity reveals their upgraded role as the decisive elements of sociopolitical advancement for the region and its people.
The US still holds the premier role in the region, maintaining very close relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel. Nevertheless, both China and Russia are making their presence visible from a different angle. The key to the hearts and minds of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel is how Washington will deal with revisionism in the region. –AN
