By LUKE COFFEY
Russia on Friday began its Zapad-21 military exercise. In total, tens of thousands of Russian troops, along with hundreds of tanks, ships, planes and armored vehicles, will take part. Most of this exercise occurs in Russia, but part of it will also take place in Belarus, right on NATO’s doorstep. Earlier this summer, a smaller military exercise connected to Zapad-21 took place in China, involving thousands of members of the People’s Liberation Army.
The current weeklong training exercise is expected to be one of the biggest carried out by Russia in years. The primary focus of the exercise is Russia’s Western Military District near NATO’s eastern flank. Importantly for Moscow, the timing could not be better. Zapad-21 comes at a time when the US and its NATO allies look weak, dazed and confused by recent events in Afghanistan.
After 20 years of US military and economic involvement in Afghanistan, the sudden collapse of the Kabul government and the ascendancy of the Taliban across the country has severely damaged America’s image and prestige in the world. The chaotic evacuation scenes at Kabul airport showed American weakness and incompetency live to the world on television screens and social media.
Make no mistake, the actions of the US in Afghanistan will embolden America’s adversaries in Beijing, Moscow and Tehran like never before. At least in the short term, the country that is benefiting the most from this is Russia.
For starters, the international focus on Afghanistan distracts from other issues around the globe — including those that Moscow is deeply involved with. One year after the fraudulent presidential election in Belarus, and while the crackdown on peaceful protesters continues, Russia is more influential in that country than ever before. But the topic of Belarus barely makes the international headlines.
Russia continues to occupy Crimea and provoke a separatist war in eastern Ukraine. This conflict is not close to being resolved. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to back Syrian President Bashir Assad, enabling him to wage his civil war. Millions of Syrians have been displaced and tens of thousands have been killed. Like with Ukraine and Belarus, the international community has all but given up on trying to find a resolution to the crisis in Syria.
Then there are the Russian cyberattacks and its meddling in elections, which continue almost unabated. Just last week, the German Foreign Ministry accused Russia of orchestrating cyberattacks against German parliamentarians ahead of the important Sept. 26 national election. With all the focus on the crisis in Afghanistan, there is less international scrutiny for issues like Belarus, Ukraine, Syria or cyberattacks. The Kremlin benefits from this.
It is not just the shift of global attention that benefits the Kremlin. The way the US left Afghanistan reaffirms Putin’s view that the Biden administration is weak and can be tested. Even before the events in Afghanistan last month, there were certain policies coming from the White House that sent signals of weakness.
The chaotic evacuation scenes at Kabul airport showed American weakness and incompetency live to the world.
Take US defense spending, for example. President Joe Biden is proposing a real-terms budget reduction for the Department of Defense. The White House budget proposal gives the Department of Defense an overall increase of 1.6 percent, but the projected inflation in the US for the same period is 2.2 percent. In practical terms, this is a defense cut — and Putin knows it. The Biden administration’s budget request also proposes a reduction of the US military force by almost 5,000 personnel. Almost half of this reduction will be from the navy. The budget for shipbuilding was reduced by $2 billion, placing the US Navy even further behind the congressionally mandated requirement to build a 355-ship battle fleet. This is the minimum size deemed necessary to counter Russian and Chinese aggression across the globe. This comes at a time when Russia is investing greatly in its armed forces, especially the navy.
Another example of Biden showing weakness is over Nord Stream 2. This is a Russian gas pipeline that will connect it directly to Germany through the Baltic Sea. Russia prefers this method because it removes Ukraine from the transit route to European markets. Germany likes the pipeline because it allows it to consolidate even more power across much of Europe. But the vast majority of European countries, especially those in Eastern Europe, are concerned about Russian dominance in the continent’s energy market.
President Donald Trump was adamant that the pipeline would not be completed. When Biden entered the White House, the pipeline was about 96 percent complete. But a pipeline that is only 96 percent complete is 100 percent useless. Instead of finding ways to prevent the pipeline from being finished, the Biden administration gave the green light to Russia over the summer. This was a major geopolitical victory for Putin. While the White House satisfied German desires by greenlighting the pipeline, this decision created a lot of angst among America’s other allies in Europe. Russia is well aware of this.
Putin respects strength. Ever the astute statesman, he can sense a good geopolitical opportunity when he sees one. He can also sense weakness. The sum of the White House’s defense budget cuts, Biden’s kowtowing to Putin over Nord Stream 2, and the shambolic US withdrawal from Afghanistan adds up to a perception of American weakness. In the coming months, expect Russia to test the Biden administration further. –AN
