The results for the German elections are going to lead to a change in the political set up of the country for the first time in 16 years. Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party looks set to take its place in the opposition, although outgoing Chancellor Merkel’s successor, Armin Laschet is trying to form a coalition government with the Greens and the conservative, business-minded Free Demokraten Party (FPD).
The election leaders, the Social Democratic Party will however, look to woo the Greens and the FPD into their camp instead. Olaf Scholz, the SPD candidate for Chancellor, has stated that his party must form government by right, due to their slender majority, and has expressed a willingness to work with both.
For experts outside of Berlin, what is of real concern is the outward positioning of the new government. The big questions will be Germany’s EU priorities, China and NATO after the new government is finally formed. The expectation is that it might still take a few months for negotiations to lead to something tangible but there are some clear indications of the trajectory that lies ahead.
Regardless of who is in power, we are unlikely to see a major change in Berlin’s trans-Atlantic and EU cooperation strategy. The EU will continue to remain the closest partner, as will all regional allies. But other changes might still come about.
The ‘China policy’ might change depending on who is in power. Chancellor Merkel was still relatively open to engaging with China, but the hostility or mistrust could increase with her departure. This in itself is dependent on the US and NATO question. There is a likelihood that the SPD might increase defence spending as a result of their coalition with the business-friendly FPD, which would lead to a renewed closeness to NATO and the US, thereby opening up more room for suspicion against China. Incidentally, the other expected coalition partner, the Greens, has been vocal against China and Russia due to their human rights record.
A new Germany might lead to a stronger western alliance against the China bloc developing here close to home. On our part, we must wait and watch to see where the chips may fall.
