In recent years, extreme weather events have become more common around the world.
In July 2021, catastrophic rains in Henan Province in central China left 398 people dead or missing; in 2022, previously humid south China suffered a severe drought and frequent wildfires.
The Northern Hemisphere sweltered in scorching temperatures this year, with July being the hottest month since records began and possibly the hottest in the last 120,000 years.
UN Secretary General António Guterres warned that “the era of global warming is over; the era of global boiling has arrived” at a July 27 press conference on climate.
Then, from July 29 to August 1, heavy rains triggered by typhoon Doksuri hit north China. Beijing and Tianjin municipalities, as well as their surrounding Hebei Province, were hit hard.
Local authorities announced on August 9 that 33 people had been killed in the Beijing floods, including five who had died conducting rescue and relief operations, as of August 8. Another 18 people were still missing. It was the heaviest rainfall in the Chinese capital in the recent 140 years. In Hebei, as of August 10, 29 people had been killed in disasters triggered by the latest round of heavy rains, while 16 others were still missing.
The latest Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN body for assessing the science related to climate change, said, “Human-induced climate change has already affected many aspects of the climate system. In addition to the increase in global surface temperature, many types of weather and climate extremes have changed. In most regions, the frequency and intensity of hot extremes have increased and those of cold extremes have decreased. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have increased at the global scale and over a majority of land regions.”
“Although extreme events such as land and marine heatwaves, heavy precipitation, drought, tropical cyclones, and associated wildfires and coastal flooding have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future, they often come with different magnitudes or frequencies in a warmer world,” the report further read.
Gong Daoxiao, Deputy Chief Engineer at the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, told Chengdu.cn, a news portal covering events in Sichuan Province, southwest China, that climate change has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of various extreme climatic disasters, and that this trend is highly likely to intensify in the future. Therefore, climate change factors should be considered when designing and constructing urban areas.
Rain-related reinforcements
When discussing the recent rainstorm in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei during an interview with China Newsweek magazine, Chao Qingchen, head of the National Climate Center, said that since the beginning of this century, extremely heavy rainfalls have become more frequent across the country. In recent years, although the overall amount of precipitation in the country has not changed significantly, the hourly rainfall intensity has increased. In short, there used to be a lot of light rain, but now there is less light rain and more heavy rain.
She went on to say that from a geographical perspective, heavy rainfall used to be more frequent in the south, but in recent years, China’s northern areas have been experiencing more and more heavy rainfalls. An example is the aforementioned rainstorm up north brought by typhoon Doksuri. In recent years, there has been an increase in the tendency of typhoons to move north, and the probability of heavy rainfall in the north has therefore increased.
But historically, the north has been dry. And the infrastructure of many cities cannot handle extreme rainfall, with a high proportion of hard surfaces but insufficient drainage.
“Underground drainage systems are the primary method of coping with rainfall but during rapid urbanization, the renovation and construction of these systems have not kept up with the occurrence of natural disasters,” Chao said.
Chao suggested the meteorological departments of such cities should comprehensively assess rainstorm hazards. Other departments should consider the risk of storm disasters in overall urban planning and in designing, managing and constructing major projects. For example, they must consider whether the drainage system, waterways and power supply can withstand heavy rainstorms, and whether billboards can withstand strong winds.
This process requires coordination between meteorological, housing and urban construction, emergency management and water conservancy departments. It requires financial resources as well. Some northern cities lack these resources as they tend to spend money on more pressing matters in the absence of looming catastrophe.
Li Xiaojiang, former President of the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, told Chengdu.cn that many cities have neglected investment in disaster prevention and reduction in favor of wide streets, large plazas and tall buildings.
Some cities have built new neighborhoods in low-lying areas or other areas prone to natural disasters, paying little attention to disaster risk in their expansion processes, he added.
Li added that some cities have recklessly developed underground spaces, increasing the risk of disasters and causing difficulties during rescue operations. When he participated in the post-disaster reconstruction of Zhengzhou, Henan Province after a flood wreaked havoc on the city on July 20, 2021, he found that many underground garages had drainage problems, resulting in huge losses during floods and making it difficult to rescue trapped people. He recommended continuously improving disaster prevention standards as well as increasing investment in disaster prevention facilities.
Chao noted that the government must pay special attention to “fairness” when formulating strategies to mitigate the effects of extreme weather events. For example, rural areas surrounding cities can be more severely affected by rainstorms because they sometimes must absorb floodwaters released by said cities. In addition, these areas often hold large numbers of vulnerable people, including seniors, children and people with disabilities. These people deserve greater attention.
She said that during the most recent rainstorm, some townships in Beijing’s suburban Mentougou District suffered heavy losses, with many houses in the mountains destroyed by the floods. These townships themselves have difficulty affording to compensate for what was lost. She suggested the establishment of special funds at the national level, with the involvement of the private sector, to provide special compensation and assistance to vulnerable people who have suffered losses in extreme weather disasters.
Climate change calls for change
Four or five years ago, Sun Ying, chief scientist of the National Climate Center, conducted research on high-temperature weather (temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius). Her research showed that, in the future, days with such high temperatures would continue to start earlier and end later in the year.
But she had not expected this change to happen so quickly. This year, Beijing’s hot days came earlier.
Sun, who has been living in Beijing and researching climate change for over 20 years, was surprised. She told China Youth Daily newspaper: “Last year’s and this year’s high temperatures are both abnormal. We have looked up a lot of data and found both the high temperatures in the Yangtze River region last year and that in north China this year are record-breaking.”
The high-temperature phenomenon is also likely to set off a series of chain reactions. Last year, persistent high temperatures caused severe drought in the Yangtze River region. The reduced water flow then affected hydropower generation, with the shortage of water resources in turn affecting domestic and industrial water use.
But climate change entails much more than just higher temperatures.
The global average temperature in 2019 was 1.1 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period, according to a UN climate change report.
Some may think 1.1 degrees Celsius is too small a margin to be noticed by people, but in fact, this small change can manifest itself in a series of extreme weather events.
Sun said that for every 1-degree Celsius increase in the temperature, the atmospheric water content increases by about 7 percent, leading to an increase in extreme precipitation events.
“Many people think climate change mainly means warmer temperatures. But the temperature rise is only the beginning of the story. Because the Earth is a system, where everything is connected, changes in one area can influence changes in all others,” an article explaining climate change on the UN’s official website read.
“The consequences of climate change now include, among others, intense droughts, water scarcity, severe fires, rising sea levels, flooding, melting polar ice, catastrophic storms and declining biodiversity,” it continued.
Zhai Panmao, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences and Cochair of Working Group I of the IPCC, told China Youth Daily that future extreme events will be closely related to the extent of global warming. With the intensification of global warming, many changes in the climate system will further intensify and extreme events that have not been observed before may also occur.
China has doubled down on efforts to build up resilience to climate change. The National Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, unveiled by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and 16 other central government departments in June last year, emphasized the need to modernize national climate-related disaster prevention systems and reduce economic vulnerability in the face of increasing risks from climate change.
The policy document, which replaced a previous version issued in 2013, pledged to make parallel efforts in climate change mitigation and adaptation after China had promised in 2020 to peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and become carbon neutral before 2060.
The strategy proposed to strengthen urban climate risk assessment and urged cities at and above the prefecture level to compile urban climate risk maps. Climate-carrying capacity should be taken into full consideration in urban construction, industrial development, ecological conservation, infrastructure and public services. Urban planners should be thoughtful in their planning of urban layout and functions, and curb any disorderly expansion that may lead to regional climate deterioration and increased disaster risks.
The strategy stated that by 2035, China’s climate change monitoring and early warning capabilities will reach the international advanced level, the climate risk management and prevention system will be mature, major climate-related disaster risks will be effectively prevented and controlled, the technology and standard system for adapting to climate change will be more complete, society’s overall ability to adapt to climate change will be significantly improved, and a climate adaptive society will be established.
Kong Feng, an associate professor with the College of Humanities and Development Studies at China Agricultural University, told news portal Jiemian.com that a climate-adaptive society aims to better adapt social and economic development as well as people’s life and work to climate change.
However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. According to a 2022 report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), atmospheric levels of the three main greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide—had all reached new record highs in 2021.
Zhai said before achieving global carbon neutrality, the occurrence of extreme weather events will further increase. “At least in the next 30 to 40 years, we will face increasing challenges from extreme events, so we have to undertake the early warning and prevention work now,” he said.
Zhang Wenjian, Assistant Secretary General of the WMO, told China Youth Daily that an early warning system for extreme events such as heatwaves and tropical storms, alerting people 24 hours in advance, can reduce losses by 30 percent. It informs how governments, communities and individuals can act to minimize the impending impacts.
Sun said she believes that China still needs to do more to educate the public about extreme weather. She said she, for example, saw an elderly woman still out with a child on an extremely hot day in Beijing this year. “She had no idea about extreme weather events,” the scientist added.
“Compared with developed countries, our disaster education in schools is inadequate. If we start now, by the time these students reach adulthood, society’s awareness will have improved,” she concluded. –The Daily Mail-Beijing Review news exchange item
