The Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu does want the return of hostages taken by Hamas in its Oct 7 attacks. That is why it has sent delegations to internationally mediated negotiations. He has to engage Hamas for a cease-fire and the return of those hostages.
Hamas too has shown its desire for a cease-fire, and has also appeared more receptive to ideas of a broader peace. Just weeks back, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh sent representatives to Beijing to join 13 other political Palestinian factions for discussions on national reconciliation.
But as Netanyahu told the US Congress during his latest trip to Washington, his eyes are on a “total victory”, which to him means the elimination of Hamas. The assassination of Haniyeh in the Iranian capital as part of that endeavor has ruined the recent progress made in international peace-brokering, and dashed hopes for a cease-fire agreement. Haniyeh played a crucial role as a key interlocutor with Egyptian and Qatari mediators during the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. His death has also provoked fears that the conflict in Gaza may evolve into an all-out Middle East war.
While the Israeli government has neither claimed responsibility for the killing, nor denied it, there is little doubt Haniyeh’s assassination has become a rallying call against Israel and the ongoing peace process, as all its enemies in the region consider it to be the perpetrator of his killing. Hamas’ armed wing said the incident would “take the battle to new dimensions and have major repercussions”. Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei said Israel had provided grounds for “harsh punishments for itself”, and it was Teheran’s duty to avenge the Hamas leader’s death as it occurred on Iranian soil. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, who lost a senior commander in an Israeli attack on Beirut one day ago, has also vowed revenge.
It takes unremitting endeavors and strenuous behind-the-scenes diplomacy to bring hostile parties to the negotiating table. But one single missile has sufficed to blow up everything achieved so far. The incident frustrated not only all international peacemaking efforts, but more importantly derailed United States-orchestrated efforts to manage and control the situation. Leading Joe Biden administration officials have all reiterated their country’s commitment to Israel’s security in their latest exchanges with Netanyahu. In private, they have reportedly conveyed serious concerns about the situation getting out of control.
As Washington seeks to choreograph a pivot to Asia by the US-led Western alliance, it does not want to be tied down by another full-blown war in the Middles East.
Not to mention domestic animosity against Israeli violence in Gaza is a growing negative asset for the ruling Democratic Party ahead of the presidential election in November.
President Biden said he was “very direct” in his meeting with Netanyahu regarding the significance of a cease-fire and consequences of escalation. Except deploying additional military resources in the region, however, there may not be a lot his administration can do to rein in Israel. The Israeli leader is ever more openly at odds with the White House’s preference for diplomacy in the region.
With the assassination of Haniyeh, the Netanyahu government is no doubt confident it can fulfill its pledge to eliminate Hamas. It is therefore likely to seek to consolidate its gains by stepping up its military operations and show even less inclination to negotiate in good faith. Calming the situation in the Middle East is therefore becoming an increasingly formidable task and dispiriting challenge.
Yet it is critical that the international community do all it can to try to prevent any escalation of the conflict and confrontation. China has proposed a three-step approach to solve the Palestinian issue, starting with a comprehensive, sustainable cease-fire in Gaza, followed by the creation of an interim national reconciliation government focused on the post-war reconstruction of Gaza, and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in line with United Nations resolutions. It is ready to work with all willing parties to achieve these goals.
