GENEVA: The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Thursday that global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2026, up from its March forecast of 1.9 percent, driven by supply chain adaptation and strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI).
While raising the forecast for merchandise trade growth, the WTO’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report lowered the outlook for commercial services trade in 2026 over the impact of the Middle East conflict. The forecast for services trade volume growth in 2026 has been revised down to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March.
In 2027, growth rates in volume terms for merchandise and services trade are expected to rise to 4.1 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively, depending on a timely resolution of the Middle East conflict, the report said.
In the report, the WTO projected global GDP growth at 2.6 percent and 2.9 percent in 2026 and 2027, respectively. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the figures “reflect trade resilience in action.”
Meanwhile, WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill told a press conference held on the same day that while the system has proven resilient, that does not necessarily mean it is robust.
“Vulnerabilities remain, and WTO members are working to address them. Strengthening the multilateral trading system will help ensure that the global economy is better equipped to deal with future shocks.”
According to the report, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent in the first half of 2026, exceeding expectations despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict. The performance reflected the ability of supply chains to adapt to shocks affecting energy, fertilizer and transport markets, the report noted. The report showed that crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by roughly 24 percent and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 47 percent in the first half of 2026. But increased shipments from other suppliers helped limit the decline in global exports to around 6 percent for crude oil and just 1 percent for LNG.
Fertilizer markets also adjusted despite severe disruption, the report said.
Another factor contributing to the higher merchandise trade growth forecast is “a stronger-than-expected” surge in AI-related capital investment, said the report.
In the first half of 2026, AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth, with trade in these products up 67 percent year-on-year, accelerating from already rapid growth in 2024 and 2025.
As the Middle East conflict disrupted transport and travel services, services trade growth slowed from 14 percent year-on-year in value terms in the first quarter of 2026 to 10 percent in the second quarter, the report showed.
It noted that other services, especially digitally delivered services such as computer and financial services exports, remained resilient and continued to support overall services trade growth. –Agencies
