BEIJING: The International Monetary Fund has predicted that China’s economy will grow 4.8 percent this year, up 0.3 percentage point on what was forecast a year ago, saying it expects the world economy to slow further in the coming years.
Global growth was projected at 3.2 percent this year and 3.1 percent next year, a cumulative 0.2 percentage point downgrade since forecasts a year earlier, the IMF said in its October World Economy Outlook, published on Tuesday at the start of the annual IMF/World Bank autumn meetings.
The IMF’s projection for China, close to China’s goal of about 5 percent growth for the year, has reflected the shifting effects of trade policy and domestic efforts.
“A stronger-than-expected outturn in recent quarters — reflecting front-loading in international trade and relatively robust domestic consumption supported by fiscal expansion in 2025 — more than offset the headwinds from higher uncertainty and tariffs,” the IMF said of China’s growth prospect.
China’s Premier Li Qiang, presiding over a symposium on Tuesday on China’s current economic situation and the next steps for economic work, emphasized the need to understand the current economic situation with a broader perspective.
It is essential to view the long-term trends in economic development from the implementation of the Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, assess the vitality of business entities through human resources, material, information and capital flows, and understand the resilience of China’s economy in light of changes in the international landscape, he said.
Li stressed the importance of enhancing the effectiveness of counter-cyclical adjustments, making the most of policy support, and using reform measures to clear obstacles hindering economic growth.
He also called for sustained efforts to expand domestic demand, as well as measures to foster a world-class industrial ecosystem and address disorderly and irrational competition in some sectors.
In April, when US President Donald Trump shook global trade norms by announcing sweeping tariffs, the IMF trimmed its forecast for China’s growth by 0.6 percentage point in response to escalating US-China trade frictions.
By July, following a pause on higher rates in May, it revised the figure upward by 0.8 percentage point.
Now, half a year after the tariff war began, the IMF projects China’s economy to maintain the growth rate it predicted in July, 4.8 percent, and that it will slow modestly next year. –The Daily Mail-China Daily news exchange item
