By James Rae
THE year 2020 will not be soon forgotten, and the chaotic effects of the coronavirus destabilized many sectors of life will certainly contribute to the downward spiral in China-U.S. relations. Is there any reason for optimism in 2021 with a change of leadership in Washington, D.C.? Could conditions actually worsen? The bilateral relationship is probably more unfavorable than at any time since opening and normalization in the 1970s, and the forecast remains rather gloomy despite the opportunity for a reset.
Below are speculations about future ties across four dimensions: security, economy, governance, and society. Some aspects will likely track the status quo, but specific areas should see improvement though conditions may worsen in others. Let’s look at some of the major issues one by one.
In the security realm, we can expect little dramatic change. The ongoing systemic transformations that portend a narrowing of relative power capabilities between the two will continue as China’s military strengthening sets off alarm bells in American defense planning. Ironically, for all of his tough talk and appreciation for strong men, President Trump found little concrete interest in military affairs, and much of his posturing was mere bluster.
Tensions over cyber-security will remain, and deployments of theatre missile defense may resurface. Indeed, conditions are more likely to be jeopardized by some form of a broad Obama-era rebalancing to the reconstituted ‘Indo-Pacific’ and more assertive American efforts to interfere in the South China Sea. Yet, reasons for optimism remain.
The U.S. is likely to recommit to multilateral efforts at promoting counter-terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation generally, and specifically to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iran nuclear question and more traditional diplomacy through the Six-Party talks on the DPRK’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Those areas of agreement could be a salve to reduce mistrust on the broader security front. Finally, cross-strait relations should at least return to some form of mutually acceptable dialogue as the ideologically-driven, and hyper-partisan pro-Taiwan angle of Secretary of State Pompeo is likely to be squared.
The most likely opportunity for improvement is within the economic dimension, where President Trump has torpedoed the relationship during the past year. For the past three decades, economic interdependence has provided the ties that bind, and the fraying of the fabric is of the highest concern. The collapse of the working relationship in business and economics is all the more alarming since in the security dimension, mutual competition is largely assumed, and the extant cultural divisions within the two societies and governments deepen misunderstandings.
From tariffs to banning Chinese app-based platforms, network systems, and investments, and even a congressional statute to delist Chinese private firms from American stock exchanges, across the board the Trump administration launched a war against the Chinese economy, even calling for an end to the very economic model that lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty and into the middle class. For one, the Biden administration is likely to phase out the harsh tariffs on China over time, and with the RMB rising this year, the currency issue may be less salient.
On the question of blocking Chinese companies’ access to American investment opportunities and capital markets, perhaps little improvement may be expected as a bipartisan consensus appears to be emerging in Washington that the U.S. is not able to compete with China and thus the American side is taking radical steps to delegitimize China’s leading firms and deleverage their global influence.
Those conditions bring us to another area that could break either way, the global governance dimension. The U.S. will return to multilateral efforts to combat climate change by rejoining the Paris Accord, resume membership in the World Health Organization (WHO), recommit to the World Trade Organization (WTO), along with sundry other UN agencies and international organizations.
The American presence will support numerous areas of collective concern between the two countries, and among the rest of the world too, and will only help improve bilateral cooperation.
– The Daily Mail-CGTN news exchange item
