THE on-and-off negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom are still hanging by a thread. Having resumed on Sunday, they broke down again on Monday. The two sides are evidently still deeply and widely divided. With UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen conceding in a joint statement after their negotiators’ fruitless new round of bargaining that “conditions for finalizing an agreement are not there”, Johnson’s earlier assumption that the odds of a no deal are “a million to one” appears to be on a very shaky ground. Although the official deadline for a Brexit deal is the end of the year since this year’s final summit of 27 EU leaders on Thursday is expected to either “welcome a deal” or demand contingency measures for a no-deal scenario, some see Wednesday as the de facto deadline for a solution to the impasse to be found. In that sense, the time left for reaching an agreement would no longer be a little more than three weeks, but two days. Considering 10 Downing Street has just again ruled out negotiations once the Brexit deadline has passed on Jan 1, and reiterated the British prime minister’s previous pledge to “leave on Australian terms”, Thursday’s EU Summit may very likely be a “make or break” moment for a deal.
After the UK left the EU on Jan 31, the two sides have been in an 11-month transition period where their relations have continued on the same terms as they have for the past decades. A no-deal Brexit, however, will subject their economic and trade ties to World Trade Organization terms, under which tariffs and quotas will weigh in. That would make the more than $880 billion trade between them each year a lot more expensive.
Taking into account the British government’s most recent statement that the transition period will not be extended and the vow of last-ditch efforts to reach a free trade agreement in time, as well as Johnson’s decision to personally visit Brussels in an attempt to secure a deal, new ground may yet be broken in negotiations prior to the Thursday summit. But given that the two parties are bogged down in what Johnson and von der Leyen call “significant differences” over fishing, rules for fair trade, and enforcement mechanisms for regulatory standards in the post-Brexit era, the challenge is daunting in such a short time.
– China Daily
