LONDON: Britain’s economy shrank in November for the first time since the initial COVID-19 lockdown last spring, hit by a tightening of social-distancing rules.
The 2.6% monthly decline was much smaller than most analysts expected – a Reuters poll had pointed to a 5.7% contraction – but several economists said Britain was still likely to suffer a double-dip recession.
Britain’s economy, which shrank more sharply than any other major advanced economy in the first half of 2020, is now 8.5% smaller than it was before the start of the coronavirus pandemic in February.
“It’s clear things will get harder before they get better and today’s figures highlight the scale of the challenge we face,” finance minister Rishi Sunak said.
But the roll-out of vaccines in Britain – which has been faster than elsewhere in Europe – was a reason to be hopeful, Sunak said.
Several economists warned that Britain was still on course for renewed recession, with the economy likely to shrink in both the final quarter of 2020 and the first three months of 2021.
“A third lockdown means that a double-dip recession in the first quarter of this year may be inevitable, particularly if the current post-Brexit disruption persists through the quarter,” said Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce.
The scale of the hit to the economy in November was much smaller than in the first lockdown last year, something the Office for National Statistics attributed to businesses adjusting to social-distancing rules and schools remaining open.
But with a third, tougher lockdown now in place, and the impact of the country’s new, less open trading relationship with the European Union also a drag on business, the country is facing major challenges in early 2021.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said this week that it was too soon to say if further stimulus would be needed after the central bank ramped up its bond-buying programme to almost 900 billion pounds ($1.23 trillion) in November. – Agencies
