IT has become a foregone conclusion that Democratic contender Joe Biden will become the next US president. Western allies of the US have extended congratulations to Biden regardless of President Donald Trump’s attitude. Under Trump’s four-year tenure, relations with China have changed the most in the US foreign policies. The all-round crackdown and containment of China could be regarded as the biggest “diplomatic legacy” that Trump will leave behind. To what extend will Biden continue the “Trump line” in relations with China?
Most analysts believe that the high-intensity conflicts launched by the Trump administration, including the trade war, have reset the general environment of China-US relations and changed the US elites’ thinking toward China. If Biden takes over, he will maintain a tough attitude on China. On what the US defines as “human rights” issues such as the Xinjiang and Hong Kong affairs, the possibility cannot be excluded that a Democratic government would go even further. In short, the US is unlikely to ease the pressure on China on key issues. However, it should also be noted that since the beginning of this year, the Trump administration has on many occasions deliberately exerted pressure on China, as it adopted pressuring China as a campaign strategy. It believed that the tougher it was on China and the more it tried to pass the buck to China for the US’ failure to contain the coronavirus epidemic, the more votes it would win. Therefore, bubbles have occurred in the US’ China policy this year where the Trump administration created tensions in China-US relations on purpose. We believe it is possible to pop those bubbles. Beijing should undertake to communicate with the Biden team as thoroughly as it can, making greater joint efforts to recover China-US relations to a state of great predictability.
First, there is a lot of room for adjustment in China-US relations in the epidemic fight. Biden’s top priority when he takes office is curbing the epidemic. As he said previously, there is no other choice but to fight the epidemic through scientific approaches. In this way, it will be hard for the US to continue its “blame China” and “hold China accountable” strategies. It will be possible for China and the US to shift from fierce confrontation to pragmatic cooperation when it comes to fighting the epidemic. Cooperation in this area may create more clues to reevaluate some problems inherent in China-US relations.
Second, Biden has confirmed his intent to have the US rejoin the Paris Agreement on climate change. To promote the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, China-US cooperation is indispensable, which will also increase noncompeting topics between China and the US. Third, in terms of the economy and trade, Biden is highly likely to continue Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, but probably not with reckless gambling-style moves. In the past few years, the US has adopted some clumsy measures that have hurt both itself and others. Washington has failed to substantially reduce the trade deficit with Beijing but has had many American companies openly voice their discontent. A change in administration might bring some pragmatic attempts of adjustment in this regard based on realities.
– Global Times
