By Lt. Gen. Naeem
Khalid Lodhi (Retired)
There are times in the history of nations when the golden rules of policies and strategies may become difficult to follow. Pakistan, unfortunately seems to be passing through one such bad patch. Gurus of Foreign Policy keep telling us that always keep a balance in relationships while dealing with big powers , don’t fall in the lap of one to the chagrin of other, keep the options open, it is never black or white, it is not a zero sum game , etc etc. But one loud threatening question, ‘ You are with us or against us?’, puts aside what all we learnt from Marganthau , Henry Kissinger and other International Relations professors and practitioners .
Such is the time when the background knowledge of Political Science, International Relations, Art of Negotiations, Fundamentals of Strategy, How to Play Poker and Chess along with the robustness of heart and mind comes handy .
This is also the time for introspections and realising the gaps in one person’s or few persons’ potentials who ought to take momentous decisions under great constraints. It is this time that situation must be immediately either handed over or discussed with the specialists of all the subjects mentioned above . Not an easy task, but fortunately our Foreign Office senior personnel are trained and groomed to make cogent recommendations. Such times demand robust democratic environment , stable economy and mature institutionalized decision making mechanism.
But what if before raising such difficult questions the Great Power ensures softening of ground by propping up a dictator, tying down economy with the shackles of FATF, IMF, WB etc, engineering internal and external security threats, and leaves no option but to make us move in their desired direction. This may be a conjecture or a fact, but enough indicators exist for the people to make up their minds. Now let us come back to the main theme choices available with our political leadership and other institutions.
No Escape From US and the West
Some analysts were duped into believing that US after exiting from Afghanistan was no more interested in the Region. This false belief was reinforced by some American pronouncements initially but soon their interests in Afghanistan, Central Asia and also Pakistan became obvious . So Uncle Sam is back in Pakistan with all its machinations. The two books ‘ Deadly Embrace’ by Bruce Riedel and ‘No Exit from Pakistan’ by Daniel Markey , say it all.
And how could they leave Pakistan , when they need to stem the Chinese economic and political strides in Central, West and South Asia and keep propping India as a bulwark against China in the Region. So they don’t want Pakistan to continue as an irritant for India. US also has strong reservations about Pakistan’s role in forcing them to abandon military campaign in Afghanistan.
They would never allow the present Taliban Regime to peacefully keep strengthening their political hold in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s predicament is that nearly all our economic, political and social activities are deeply embedded in US, West Europe and Middle East.
And these regions are so closely knit with each other that either we embrace them all or lose them collectively. We definitely cannot afford that. Our destination of exports and manpower, badly required remittances , education standards, understanding of languages etc are all indicative of the conclusion of the inevitability. Moreover the influence of this block along with India can rub our nose through FATF, IMF, WB, WTO etc. The present precarious economic situation (that in my humble opinion has been fabricated through economic hitmen) makes our independent decision making ability close to zero. So those who profess, that presently, for Pakistan there is no moving away from the Western Block are logically and factually correct.
Even if we are aware that US has always used and abandoned Pakistan at their sweet will , we can’t do a dime about it.
The problem remained manageable as long as America kept allowing us or was unable to block us completely , to cultivate economic, military and political ties and interactions with China . Hats off to our Foreign Office that kept a fine balance, and managed our own interests very well. But it may be difficult from hence onwards if not impossible.
Because presently all our core interests , CPEC, Relations with China, Russia, Afghanistan, Iran , CARs run counter to American Interests in the Region. We may be goaded to go soft on Kashmir and nurture good relations with India so as to remove any Indian distractions from their common enemy China. Some undercurrents indicating inclination towards recognition of Israel can also be easily discerned , to ease up tensions in Middle East. We may again be in a situation to answer that difficult question, “You are with us or against us ?”
Prospects of Moving towards East ?
At the global level the competition (conflict) between the US and its Allies and China-Russia Group is on and gaining momentum with each passing week. US has already engaged reluctant Russia militarily in the Ukraine Conflict and intends bleeding Russia economically , politically and militarily, main brunt being faced by hapless Ukrainians .
American efforts to precipitate a military engagements with China in the Indo-Pacific by raking up Taiwan issue has temporarily failed. But they are not likely to relent and expected to make more serious provocations in near future, before China becomes militarily formidable. Chinese are following their own timelines and would be contended to keep assisting Russia to keep the US and West engaged in Ukraine.
While this military muscle flexing is still on, Russo-Chinese Grouping is trying hard to make a dent in the World Economic Order in a way that they may escape the hegemony of Petro-Dollars and unilateral sanctions. This effort to modify the Regime of Dollar and at least partially replace it by other means augers well with most of the debt ridden and sanctioned poor and developing countries.
But it is going to take some time. And as this politico-economic conflict rages without any final outcome, this interim period has put many a nations across the globe in an economic turmoil with far reaching political ramifications. Pakistan is clearly one of the leading victims of this environment. And our choices of tilting towards East have to be seen in this context.
Big Powers are expanding their political and economic influences by various policies and strategies. Belligerent America and Revisionist China have made our choices limited and difficult. In an endeavor to avoid direct clash with US, China is not in a mood to salvage its allies and partners (except May be Russia) from the debilitating impact of the impending economic and political turmoil.
The cases of Srilanka and Pakistan says it all. Especially when the inept leadership of such countries ( like our own) could not foresee that what was happening to them economically and psychologically through employment of Economic Hitmen and Perception Management techniques, ensuring a near meltdown situation, leaving apparently no options of looking elsewhere but United States of America. Geography and history must never be forgotten while employing geopolitics.
China, India, Iran, Afghanistan, CARs, Russia and Middle East are all within our geographical vicinity and this is a huge Region with nearly half the world’s population and about a third of the global wealth if not more. Nurturing good relations with all of them can open wide economic and political vistas and it is not difficult at all except probably for the intransigence of India.
China the emerging new super power has had excellent history of relations with Pakistan. And now as they are expanding their economic influence all around , this was the best time to stick around with them. Antagonising China to appease US would be a monumental blunder under the changing global environment. The US-Pak history of relations has been chequered and with high and low spikes , highly unreliable to put it bluntly. Though for super powers geography may be less relevant but the distance of American mainland should be a factor for us to consider during comparative studies.
The Silver Lining
Now for the decision makers there are some glowing pointers to guide them through tumultuous in determinant times. Within Western Europe Germany and to an extent France are not happy with the American hubristic behaviour. Turkey has shown its resistance to certain US dictates. Their leadership and public is openly exhibiting their abhorrence to Uncle Sam’s Global hegemonic policies. Saudi Arabia the leader of ME Muslims has shown annoyance more than once on certain American remarks. They are cultivating economic relations with Russia and China.
Qatar is already showing positive overtures towards Iran and Afghanistan. Even India has defied few expectations of their new strategic ally America, openly professing and pursuing their own national interests . Now all this means that we have a good chance of escaping the gravity of magical trance ,so aptly woven around us by United States of America , mainly by pushing us (own inabilities made it happen) in the present vortex of economic meltdown.
We may have to face a big socio economic shock while changing own orientation more towards east without breaking away from Middle East and some part of Europe , however it will enable us in the long run to ultimately sail into less choppy waters by embracing Iran, Afghanistan, CARs, China, Russia, Turkey etc. India will remain a wild card that may also mellow down if we successfully build our dream around CPEC and BRI countries.
No antagonist behaviour towards US is being suggested, as we can ill afford any such overt gesture, however our efforts of shifting the foreign policy orientation will not be taken kindly. That we will have to bear as a tyranny of the times we are passing through.
What has been painted and suggested is just a raw and dotted outline of prevailing scenario and own opportunities. This definitely need to be refined in debates in more aware circles of academics of IR, practitioners of Foreign Policy and strategists. Only a humble contribution as a teaser idea has been floated.
