By KHALED ABOU ZAHR
In recent years, the wall that shielded Europe from crises in the Middle East has been shattered. From the refugee crisis of 2015 to the current tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, Europe has become directly affected by the dynamics of the region’s geopolitical balance. In many ways, when it comes to geopolitics, Europe and the Middle East have the same problems.
For many analysts, one of the main reasons for this situation is the reduced US role in both regions, leading to a vacuum that is an open invitation for meddling and destabilization. In short, it has weakened the transatlantic alliance, which also governs the defense and security of the Middle East, at a time when both the global and regional geopolitical orders are being reshuffled.
On a global level, it is now obvious that Russia and China are much more involved in the Middle East than ever before. Russia is a major player in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean; it also has the capacity to play a stronger role in Yemen. The visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Egypt this week shows a strong understanding of the region and a closer alignment with Cairo’s vision. China, meanwhile, has increased its economic and trade ties through the development of its Belt and Road Initiative, from the Gulf region up to the western Mediterranean, with a focus on infrastructure and construction. It has been able to secure major deals in both Israel and, as recently announced, Iran.
On a regional level, since the so-called Arab Spring and accentuated by the Iran nuclear deal of 2015, leading Arab countries — namely Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE — have increased their parade grounds and started diversifying their defense and security strategies, as well as broadening their trade agreements. In short, they have taken a much more proactive policy toward their countries’ security. Despite some setbacks, this has been a successful step. Also regionally, Turkey, following the failed coup of 2016 and its dead-end talks regarding joining the EU, has taken a much stronger stand that clearly opposes Europe but is also challenging and divisive within Middle Eastern ranks. Only for Israel and Iran have the dynamics mostly stayed the same.
These changes have led the US and EU to discuss the revitalization of the transatlantic alliance. The outcome of these initiatives is still unknown, so it might be an urgent necessity for leading countries in the Middle East to engage strongly with the EU on a defense and security level, but also to discuss stronger economic ties.
When looking at the various issues that affect both regions, we quickly notice they are the same. We also quickly notice that there is an alignment in views and in necessary action. However, due to the number of actors, there has been a drive toward bilateral agreements and short-term pragmatism rather than a strong and solid infrastructure or alliance. This is clear in both the Libyan and the eastern Mediterranean files, in terms of both energy and trade flow security. A listing of last year’s naval exercises between the various countries can quickly clarify this point. And this is the main issue in Europe and the Middle East (EMEA): The lack of aligned policy within the region, as uncovered by the retreat of the US.
I am a big believer in the transatlantic alliance and the stability it has brought the world. America’s leading role since the First World War has generally been a positive one. Despite what most believe, there is less poverty, less conflict and greater stability in the current world order. The announcement of America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan clearly indicates that it cannot be present on all fronts anymore. This means that the transatlantic alliance needs to morph, and it is high time that the old continent took on greater responsibility, with this effort stretching to the Middle East as well.
There is also the current sovereign identity debate in the US, which might, in a few years, translate into a total withdrawal from its traditional role and all its alliances. It is a small probability, but some of Israel’s actions in the past few years are an indicator of this potential outcome. Tel Aviv has used an approach of asking for US forgiveness rather than permission while engaging more steadily with both China and Russia. The EMEA region also needs to prepare for such a scenario by taking on more initiatives. This means a stronger dialogue with the US on the necessities of stability. –AN
