By Musavir Hameed Barech
In the last four centuries, there always has been a country that imposed smart power (a combination of both hard and soft power) to lead the global order. In the seventeenth century, France under Cardinal Richelieu sowed the seed of the nation-state and became the torch bearer of the world order which was mostly derived from the concept of national interest. Followed by Great Britain in the eighteenth century led the world under the guise of the balance of power in Europe up to next 200 years. Moving forward, Metternich of Austria led the concert of Europe in the 19th century. Arguably, in the 20th century, no country got as much power to influence the world order as the United States of America got by utilizing its hard power dominated the world by installing bases worldwide and influencing the world financial system to propagate its political system and concepts of rights.
However, as the saying goes every empire has to taste the decline. Apparently, the Pandemic and internal political turmoil of the USA paved the way for the decline of American hegemony. The former president of the US Donald J. Trump pledged to pull out troops of US outside America and urged to invest that money in the people of America resulted in the creating the vacuum for hegemon which has been mainly filled by the Chinese assertiveness under the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to influence the region through its smart power.
Asian century many predicted that it started after the 2007 financial crisis in which American and European economies were in a recession. Intriguingly, many Asian economies perform brilliantly aftermath of the crisis particularly China and India and they showed +9.4 percent, and +8.5 percent GDP growth respectively. Contrary to that of the USA which showed -2.5 Percent GDP growth. Followed by other European nations which bear the brunt of the financial crisis.
The post-Pandemic world also paves the way for Asian countries to lead the world. The covid-19 Pandemic commenced spreading from China and spread all over the world in 2020. However, many Asian countries got successful in handling it which includes China, South Korea, and ASEAN countries. On the other hand, the USA and her like-minded countries had not taken the Pandemic seriously. Former President Donald Trump was not in the favor of a complete lockdown in the initial phases. Consequently, the Pandemic spread all across the USA and many thousand casualties were reported. Economically, America loosed billions of dollars. It is pertinent to mention that the current high inflation in the USA is the result of printing extra money in order to give stimulus packages to its citizens during the onslaught of the Pandemic.
From the above saying, one must agree to the fact that the seed of the Asian Century was sowed but now one must question which countries are in a position to arise as a country with the power, the will, and the intellectual and moral force to shape the international world order in accordance with its values. To answer this question, it is instrumental to mention the report of the Center for Economic and Business Research, UK based think tank in which they predicted that both China and India will be the leading economies of the world in 2028, five years earlier than the previous prediction of 2033 due to Covid pandemic.
Both countries contain roughly 40 percent of the world’s population and are in the quest to explore international markets in order to sell their commodities. However, Both China and India have indulged in border clashes. Most recently in Galwan Valley in which many casualties were reported from both sides. Intriguingly, some events show that China and India are jointly working to de-escalate the tense situation on the border. In this regards firstly Indian Foreign minister S Jaishankar said “It is said that the pre-requisite for an Asian Century is an India and China coming together. Conversely, their inability to do so undermines it.” Unprecedently, Beijing backed this statement of Indian Foreign minister and urged both countries to jointly work for achieving this common goal.
Apparently, both countries are serious to deescalate the border tension and cease interference in each other internal matters. Recently, when United Nation Human rights council tabled a resolution to start a probe against China’s alleged atrocities in Xinjiang province particularly against the Uighur Muslims. India surprisingly abstained from voting against China without giving an official statement.
In nutshell, the Asian century will not happen and replace the American century unless the territorial disputes among the Asian states will not sort out. India while serious about sorting out the territorial disputes must solve its territorial disputes with other neighboring countries, particularly Pakistan. The unilateral decision of India of abrogating articles 35A and 270 will not create stability in the region but definitely undermines the aim of an Asian century.
The Writer Is M. Phil Scholar at Government College University, Lahore.
