From Osama Al-Sharif
A pivotal moment could be close for the 14-month-old war on Gaza, which has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of Palestinians, destroyed almost 80 percent of the enclave and left more than 2 million Gazans internally displaced. There have been many such moments, only for all hopes of a ceasefire to be dashed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s intransigence and vacillation have been the main impediments preventing a cessation of what the world now sees as a genocidal war against the Palestinians.
What makes this pivotal moment different are several things. President-elect Donald Trump is a month away from his historic inauguration. He has indicated that he wanted the war in Gaza to end before he took office on Jan. 20, a message that was intended for both Netanyahu and the leaders of Hamas. Trump has also threatened to unleash US firepower if the Israeli captives are not released by the time he is sworn in.
Also, the outgoing administration is believed to be exerting severe pressure on the Israeli premier to adopt a deal in a bid to give President Joe Biden some credit for stopping the bloodbath in Gaza.
In addition, internal pressure on Netanyahu has spiked since the end of the war with Hezbollah, which was seen as delivering a victory for Israel. The north is now secure and thousands of Israelis can return home. The sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria last week was the icing on the cake. Israel has now neutralized all threats from Syria, having destroyed almost all of the country’s military capabilities.
But perhaps the most pressing factor is former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s claim last month that the Israeli army had achieved all its military objectives in Gaza. Hamas’ top military and political leaders have been terminated and the group’s ability to pose a threat in the future is no more. In the eyes of the Israeli public, Hamas has been defeated and attention must now turn to bringing home the captives.
There are other issues at play. The daily carnage in Gaza is now a liability, with mounting evidence of indefensible war crimes and crimes against humanity. Israel’s allies can no longer justify or excuse what it is doing, such as the targeting of schools, hospitals, designated safe areas, journalists and aid workers, as well as the gruesome images of starving children and bereaved women.
Netanyahu has known for some time that the war has lost its strategic purpose. The killing spree has continued for several reasons: delaying an investigation into the Oct. 7 attacks, breaking the spirit of the Palestinians and forcing Hamas into a humiliating deal.
His ploy about dictating his terms on Hamas appears to have worked. While the conditions of the latest proposed agreement remain vague, it is now believed that Hamas has accepted a partial truce, not an end to the war, while also allowing Israel to stay in control of the crucial Philadelphi Corridor and other parts of the now-partitioned enclave. There will reportedly be a gradual release of the Israeli captives in different phases in return for an easing of all restrictions on the passage of aid into Gaza.
A Hamas source has confirmed that a deal that would gradually end the war could be imminent if Netanyahu does not obstruct it. Trump and Netanyahu discussed such a deal on Sunday. On Monday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reportedly told Knesset lawmakers that Israel is “closer than ever” to closing a deal with Hamas to free the hostages held in Gaza.
If approved by Netanyahu, the ceasefire — albeit a temporary one that would not stop the war — could pave the way for the release of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners, while providing a reprieve for the people of Gaza. The last time a similar pause was reached was back in November 2023, when 105 hostages were released in a week-long truce.
Netanyahu is believed to be ready to present his coalition government with details of the deal this week. Israeli and US sources believe the agreement could be in place before the end of the year.
But what would follow this truce is unknown. Netanyahu’s ability to resume the war would be degraded, even if all the hostages are released. Trump would be in the White House by then and he would not back the resumption of a war that has no benefit for the US or even Israel.
The day-after scenario is also uncertain. Netanyahu has vowed to keep Gaza under permanent Israeli military control.
Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has pulled out of an agreement reached in Cairo by Palestinian groups, including Hamas and Fatah, for a joint administration of Gaza. Palestinian sources said that Abbas’ Fatah party had pulled out for fear that the administration committee would become a de facto ruler of Gaza and an alternative to the Palestinian Authority.
Ironically, Netanyahu has rejected the notion of allowing the PA to run Gaza, while his Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is taking steps to consolidate the annexation of the West Bank and push the PA into financial collapse.
Regardless of what Netanyahu has in mind for Gaza, the international community must be ready to act immediately once the war comes to a halt. International aid groups, UN observers and foreign journalists must have full access to the beleaguered enclave to document the horrors that have taken place in Gaza over the past 14 months.
And while the daily barrage may finally come to an end, the reality is that there are 2 million Palestinians who are displaced with no access to shelter, clean water, sanitation, food, health or education. This will be a humanitarian crisis for many years to come.
It is way too early to talk about reconstruction. The priority must be to help the survivors. Israel will attempt to release itself from responsibility toward the victims of its genocidal war. It must not be allowed to do so. The day the war ends must also be the day Israel begins to answer for its war crimes in Gaza.
For Hamas, the end of the war must trigger open and serious discussions on its future and its purpose in Palestinian life and the liberation struggle. The Oct. 7 attacks have changed the trajectory of the Palestinian fight to end the occupation in a cataclysmic way. The outcome of that fateful day has now become a fork in the road in the decades-old Palestinian saga. While it has exacted an unimaginable cost on the Palestinians, Oct. 7 also awakened the world to their ongoing injustice and suffering. Where to go from here, no one knows. But what is clear is that the fates of Israel and the Palestinians have become more interconnected than ever before. –FP
