From Hafed Al-Ghwell
Almost a year ago, Georgia reached a milestone in its foreign policy when the European Commission announced the country was a candidate for EU membership. Despite that historic decision, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said last week that arrangements to join the bloc would be delayed, and membership talks would not be held until 2028 — a statement that led to rioting in Tbilisi. What is Georgia’s path to the EU now, and the potential implications of this decision for the country; and what might these developments mean for the Middle East?
Given its “small state” status, Georgia is torn between Russia and the West, especially since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Georgia, as well as Moldova, which borders Ukraine, has been feeling the effects of the polarized political field on its ability to calibrate foreign policy. In August 2008, Russia and Georgia had a brief war, after which Moscow declared the independence of South Ossetia and another breakaway province, Abkhazia, and established an armed base there.
Initially, the Georgian government expressed solidarity with Ukraine in the UN, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and the Council of Europe. In March 2022, Georgia took an essential symbolic step toward EU membership, a few days after Ukraine’s application.
However, the country did not impose economic sanctions on Russia. Coincidentally, after the recent decisions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his view to European partners and the US in support of Georgia’s pro-EU movement, following up on Ukraine’s sanctions against the Georgian government amid its crackdowns on EU protests.
Ukraine’s Western backers supported this path. In an official statement on Georgia’s suspension of EU accession, the US said that this “process goes against the promise to the Georgian people enshrined in their constitution to pursue full integration into the EU and NATO.” Earlier, in October, the European Commission told Georgia that it would not be able to recommend opening EU membership talks with the state unless it changed political course, considering that the Georgian Dream policy is increasingly Moscow friendly.
According to the bloc’s expansion policy, the commission repeated that “Georgia’s accession process has de facto been halted” because of reasons such as legislation and need for electoral reform, and a new policy that requires organizations in Georgia to obtain more than 20 percent of their financial support from abroad to register as agents of foreign impact — which is regarded as “strong anti-EU narratives.” After the decision of the Georgian Dream governing party to suspend its path to the EU, Dutch officials said that they would ask the EU to suspend its visa-free arrangement with Georgia, in addition to requesting an examination into the actions of the Georgian Dream government.
Despite Georgia being sandwiched by the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West, it seems the crisis within Europe, nonetheless, may play out positively in terms of Georgia’s relations with Middle Eastern partners. Relations are already being boosted through the memorandum of understanding that has linked Georgia and the GCC since 2017, in addition to the joint action plan that was approved in 2022. This includes cooperation in the fields of politics, economy, and communications.
Individual bilateral relations with member countries have been growing, while official visits have been particularly frequent, helping to facilitate mutual benefits. In 2022, bilateral non-oil trade between Georgia and UAE reached $468 million, an increase of 110 percent over 2021, and constituting 63 percent of Georgia’s trade with the entire Arab world.
In 2023, the UAE signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement with Georgia, particularly motivated by the strategic importance of Georgia, which acts as an East-West corridor to boost connectivity and trade. Its position makes Georgia an important transit hub between Asia and Europe, and this has become more important, especially for Europe in recent times. As security concerns grow around energy supplies, in particular, reliable alternative routes and markets are key.
After the official visit of Irakli Garibashvili to Saudi Arabia at the end of 2022, where the then-prime minister met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Georgia became an area of special interest. –FP
