From Chris Doyle
For a British political system that has been characterized for a decade by dysfunction and instability, last week’s general election had an almost stultifying degree of predictability.
At no stage was a major Labour Party victory ever in doubt. Keir Starmer could have measured up for new curtains in 10 Downing Street a year ago. As it is, he entered that famous door on Friday with a mammoth majority of about 170.
One indication that he knew this was the absence of any vision for the future of Britain. Even key members of the Labour Party admit in private that they do not have an inkling of what Starmer’s Britain will be like, how it will change.
What might be a safe analysis is that Starmer will take a very managerial approach to politics. He was late to politics. He understands the processes of government far better than those of Parliament and elections. He will concentrate on delivery and performance rather than soundbites and slogans. He has made standards in public life a key feature, with an emphasis on country before party.
This is perhaps the major element of his appeal. After so much tumult, Starmer offers a reassuring hand. There will be no rash policies. Starmer will take a lawyerly approach to policy formulation, wanting to be convinced in detail of the merits of any case for change. In a world that all too often derides experts, he will depend on them.
However, this will not set hearts racing. This is not an inspirational agenda. It is barely leftist either. Starmer has taken the party to the center and, on some issues, to the center-right. His room for maneuver is tight given that he has refused to significantly raise taxes or borrow further, so his government will look for growth to help fund the UK’s degraded public services, which require urgent attention. Starmer has paid little attention to international affairs, but he has experience of dealing with other governments in his former roles. The core change will be that Labour will try to reembrace European partners, sending a clear message that the era of Europe-bashing, as epitomized by the Conservatives of the last decade, is over. Labour will also look to reassure the Biden administration of the enduring relationship, but will be casting a wary eye over the possibility of a Donald Trump victory in November.
As for the Middle East, many see the differences as marginal. The Conservative Party had an extreme anti-Palestinian approach and policy. The base of the Labour Party is extremely pro-Palestinian, but what about the leadership? Starmer will not be hostile to Israel, although he has made explicit commitments on international law, particularly that Labour will respect the independence of the International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court. What happens if the latter does issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant? Will the government restrict arms sales to Israel? It will have to request the legal advice that the previous government claimed ruled out such a ban. Labour is committed to publishing such advice.
Starmer’s position on Gaza alienated huge swathes of the population, not least the British Muslim community. He should attempt to win them back not with vague blandishments but solid ethical positions on Palestine and other issues.
As for the rest of the region, little has been said. Labour will need to boost the flagging British economy, so the party may not raise human rights issues as often as its supporters would like. Do not expect massive change at this juncture.
What is the future for the Conservative Party after not getting close to challenging its opponents? This traditional party of government imploded, winning just 121 seats, fewer than ever before. The heart of the party was ripped out by divisions, failures and recriminations. It could not rally around the uninspiring Rishi Sunak. The leadership war that is to follow may be more akin to a bloodbath.
The party could head to the far right and into the embrace of Nigel Farage, who now heads his Reform UK party in Parliament with five seats. That number is hardly earth-shattering, but the party received an alarming 14 percent of the vote. Some forecast that, within a few years, Farage will launch a takeover of the Conservative Party. Immigration remains a touchstone issue that Reform profits from and on which Labour has few answers. The “deport immigrants to Rwanda” gimmick has been jettisoned, but what will take its place?
The days of Muslim-bashing of the last government should be over. Labour should try to repair the damage. The Conservative Party has to reevaluate how it engages with Muslims, as well as non-white ethnic communities. –FP
