DM Monitoring
Moscow: The ongoing pro-democracy uprising in Belarus has placed Moscow in a difficult position. Since protests first erupted in August 2020 over a rigged presidential election, Moscow has found itself in what many observers regard as a no-win situation.
By propping up the regime of discredited dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the Kremlin risks provoking the anger of the Belarusian population and forcing a previously friendly neighbor with deep cultural ties to turn decisively away from Russia.
However, failure to act in support of Lukashenka means allowing a grassroots democracy movement to succeed on Russia’s doorstep. As well as to set a precedent of allowing democratic activism to force the resignation of a head of state. For a political regime still haunted by the Soviet collapse of 1991, a people-power victory in Belarus that might serve as a symbol to an internal Russian opposition remains unthinkable.
It appears that the Kremlin may be actively working on a third option. In late December 2020, Russian investigative news portal The Insider published a series of leaked documents claiming to outline the Kremlin’s plans for Belarus. The leaked papers, which seem to have been created in September 2020, indicate that Moscow intends to create at least one pro-Russian political party in Belarus. The plan envisages winning future parliamentary elections through a newly created proxy or puppet political party that would be opposed to Lukashenka while favoring continued integration between Belarus and Russia.
The documents were allegedly authored by the Russian President’s Office for inter-regional and Cul-tural Relations with Forei-gn Countries. This department is known for implementing Kremlin strategy in Russian-occupied zones such as Abkhazia in Georgia, and is headed by security hardliner General Vladimir Chernov.
The report also details the Kremlin’s intention to shepherd Lukashenka out of power while tinkering with the creation of a new Belarusian constitution. This is a plausible enough approach. While the Kremlin and the Belarusian opposition naturally have very different ideas about what a new constitution would look like, everyone agrees on the need for constitutional changes.
