From David Gosset
In a world fraught with crises, constant changes, and profound uncertainties, the relationship between the United States and China stands as a pivotal element not only for the two superpowers but for global peace and prosperity.
The recent three-day visit to Beijing by Jake Sullivan, US President Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor, underscores the critical importance of this bilateral relationship. During his visit, Sullivan engaged in high-stakes discussions with key Chinese officials, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi, General Zhang Youxia, who is vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President Xi Jinping himself. This intense exchange of views, occurring just two months before the US presidential elections, is significant for building a foundation of strategic trust between the two nations.
The state of China-US relations reached a dangerously low point in August 2022, when then Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan. This visit was rightly perceived by Beijing as a provocative move, exacerbating tensions between the two countries and intensifying the risk of conflict. The diplomatic fallout from Pelosi’s visit highlighted the fragile state of relations and the potential for miscalculations that could lead to severe consequences.
During his trip to Beijing, Sullivan will have recognized that Taiwan is central to Chinese interests. In fact, the US approach to Taiwan largely determines China’s stance on a variety of issues and, of course, its relationship with Washington. In contrast to many other countries, China’s diplomacy is notably consistent, guided by clear principles, and predictable.
Obviously, stabilizing diplomatic interactions between the US and China does not automatically resolve all global issues. The Middle East remains a volatile region, with ongoing conflicts and instability that continue to challenge international peace and security. Similarly, the situation in Ukraine remains perilous, with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine showing no signs of a swift resolution. These global challenges underscore the complexity of international relations and the limitations of any single bilateral relationship in addressing the broader spectrum of global crises.
Sullivan’s engagement with Chinese officials, while a positive step, is no guarantee the US and China will seamlessly manage the redistribution of power on the global stage. The shifting dynamics of international relations could result in a relative decline of US influence and a corresponding rise in Chinese power. Such a shift has implications for how global affairs are managed and could affect the balance of power in various regions. However, the short-term benefits of such high-level dialogues are evident in their potential to mitigate the risks of miscalculations and unintended escalations.
It is highly probable that US President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping will establish direct communication before the inauguration of the next US President in January 2025. It could be done by phone or at the APEC Summit or the G20 Summit in November. If it happens, it will be one year after the San Francisco meeting, which was crucial for mending a fragile relationship. Direct communication at the highest level of leadership is crucial for maintaining stability and effectively managing crises. These interactions provide an avenue for addressing disagreements, managing tensions, and fostering mutual understanding.
The nature of the China-US relationship is multifaceted, encompassing economic, political, and strategic dimensions. Economically, the two countries are deeply intertwined, with extensive trade relations and investment flows that underscore their mutual dependence. Politically, both nations play critical roles in shaping global governance and addressing transnational issues such as climate change, terrorism, and pandemics. Strategically, their interactions have implications for regional security and international stability. The need for careful management of this relationship is evident, as missteps can have far-reaching consequences beyond bilateral ties.
In this context, Sullivan’s visit can be seen as a necessary step toward stabilizing the relationship and laying the groundwork for future diplomatic engagements. –The Daily Mail-China Daily news exchange item
