DM Monitoring
NEW DELHI: The latest news from Manipur is that Ajay Kumar Bhalla, the former home secretary of the Union government, is the new governor of the state. But the two other bits of news that Manipur watchers must be more eagerly waiting to hear are, one, when will our prime minister, Narendra Modi, visit the state which he has been mysteriously dodging, and two, when will the Manipur chief minister, N. Biren Singh, who has failed to quell the ethnic violence, be asked to quit.
Of the two questions, one need not attach much importance to the second – Singh’s rule rests on the mercy of the Modi government. One also cannot be sure whether he ever really ruled the state with full command.
In less than a month after the stripping incident of May 3, 2023, the then governor of Manipur, Anusuiya Uikey, on May 31, had unceremoniously disqualified him from the customary chairmanship of the unified command of the state’s security outfits. On June 17, he was excluded from the high-level security meeting on Manipur which was held in Delhi. Even in the first security conference that governor Bhalla convened after his takeover, Singh was conspicuously missing.
It is evident, therefore, that the buck stops at the desk of Prime Minister Modi and hence the question is what he is up to, or, what is behind his obstinacy not to visit Manipur at all. Is keeping Singh merely as a titular chief minister suits Modi’s politics the best?
Whatever may be said in criticism of Modi as a human being, or his style of governance, one thing that will have to be conceded is that he is a master craftsman of realpolitik. If so, his decision not to visit Manipur cannot be unintended. But how to read Modi’s mind is not easy. Since unlike former Prime Ministers Jawaharlal Nehru or Manmohan Singh, both of whom had long tenures, Modi seldom gives an opportunity to anyone, even his party members, to read his mind. The only way to know it, therefore, is by making some intelligent guesses which one can attempt to do.
But before that, a recap of the present crisis is in order. It triggered after the Manipur high court judgment of March 27, 2023 which ruled that like the Nagas and Kukis, the Meitei community should also be granted the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status. Although the judgment was soon revoked, the Kuki community had already revolted. Soon the Meiteis retaliated in greater numbers. On May 3, some rowdy elements from among them most unabashedly paraded naked some Kuki women with the obvious purpose of sending the message that Manipur belonged to the Meiteis and the Kukis were a subservient minority.
The Meitei-Kuki civil war that ensued soon resulted in about 250 deaths and 60,000 people being displaced. Militants belonging to both communities became so ferocious that even the security forces started fearing them. In February 2024, when about 200 Meitei militants stormed the residence of the additional superintendent of police and demanded the release of one of their men in custody the police had to oblige. The police conceded that if they did not, they themselves could have been ‘lynched or shot dead.’
The Myanmar connection of the conflict is also relevant. The India-Myanmar border is porous and many communities have cross-border ethnic connections, and since there is the massive issue of drug and gun running, the Manipur question is a complex one.
A Hindu report dated January 25, 2024 noted: “In September 2022, authorities in Manipur pushed back 4,300… Myanmar nationals from the Moreh area…. The civil war in the neighbouring country [Myanmar] also forced some 40,000 people into Mizoram, who unlike Manipur, made them feel at home primarily due to their ethnic affiliation.” The Indian government has toyed with the idea of fencing the India-Myanmar border which I would say is yet another flight to fantasy. India’s former Chief of the Army Staff, General M.M. Naravane, did not mince his words when he warned that besides its prohibitive cost, such a fence could serve “a useful purpose if it is kept under observation and patrolled throughout its length. Without the ability to react to any breach, a fence is of little value.”
