DM Monitoring
Since the December 2018 election, there were very little visible exchanges between Bangladesh and India. Going by the past, New Delhi had never failed to be excited whenever the Awami League won an election in Bangladesh. After its 2018 victory, except for a message from Narendra Modi, there was not even lukewarm enthusiasm in New Delhi that the Awami League had won such a “spectacular” victory. And China, as if by the back door, entered everywhere in Bangladesh.
Strangely, strategic and foreign policy experts in Bangladesh failed to see the way India left and China entered Bangladesh in matters of politics of the country. They continued to believe that India was too deeply embedded in Bangladesh with RAW having penetrated almost everywhere, as many would say, even in the office of the powerful DGFI where they were rumoured to have a whole floor to themselves.
With such beliefs about Indian presence in Bangladesh, they ignored that there were few mega projects in Bangladesh in which the Chinese were not involved even when it was known unofficially by them that Chinese had loaned and invested over US$ 24 billion in Bangladesh. It was also strange that there was no apparent immediate concern in New Delhi as there was in 2014 to bring Bangladesh back from from China. Perhaps New Delhi was confident that it could use the stranglehold that its intelligence had established in the power corridors of Bangladesh to encourage and if necessary warn Shaikh Hasina to return to its fold. The way the Chatra League, Jubo League and many in the inner circles of the Awami League were publicly exposed last year could not have been the initiative of Sheikh Hasina because it is not the AL style to do such things against its own. There is every reason to believe that these leaders of the Chhatra League/Jubo League who were key factors in Awami League’s election “victory” in 2018 were exposed, embarrassed, humiliated, some expelled and jailed because of behind the scenes initiatives of RAW as warnings to Sheikh Hasina not to enter too deep into the Chinese sphere of influence.
New Delhi’s views have changed from concerns to alarms during the ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic when China has started making huge overtures in Ladakh, crossing into India with 12,000 troops last month acquiring eventually 60 km of Indian territory. Nepal’s audacious challenge to India over territory and banning all Indian currencies over Rs 100 occurred as South Asia and the world saw China had completed a railway tunnel through the Himalayas to Nepal, a strategically earth-shattering development.
With Pakistan on China’s side for decades and Sri Lanka allowing China strategic presence in its territory with the lease over the Hambantota deep seaport that it had built, China is strategically placed in South Asia as it has never been. These developments in South Asia have no doubt
shaken New Delhi. That has placed Bangladesh in renewed focus in New Delhi and has made it extremely important to New Delhi that Dhaka should be on its right side and not leaning as far towards China as it is now. New Delhi has watched with growing alarm Dhaka-Beijing relations deepen in recent months and weeks with Sheikh Hasina in denial of the signals India gave her government by exposing corruption around her administration. Most recently, President Xi Jinping called her, sent a planeload of assistance including doctors to help her fight the Pandemic and Dhaka-Beijing has entered into sister city agreement.
In sum, as this paper demonstrates, India’s hyped up propaganda warfare against Bangladesh is actually an attempt to distance the ruling Awami League’s psyche from Beijing to New Delhi. One, however, believes, India has yet “lost” another country, Bangladesh, in South Asia, which has decided to go the Sri Lanka and Nepal way of doing business with their mighty neighbours.
Seemingly, China is winning and India is losing out, fast! It is imperative for the Bangladeshis who believe in liberal democracy and freedom to keep both New Delhi and Beijing at a safe distance, and play the game of preserving the national identity and sovereignty of their country with utmost skill and dexterity. China is definitely a much better option for Bangladesh than India, as unlike the latter, the former is not known for playing the big brother vis-à-vis its smaller neighbours.–By Taj Hashmi
Concluded
