A helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi made a hard landing in the northwestern province of East Azarbaijan of Iran on May 19, killing Raisi and other senior officials, including Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, East Azarbaijan’s Governor Malek Rahmati and a Friday Prayer leader Tabriz Mohammad Ali Ale-Hasehem.
In a message of condolence sent to Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber on May 20, President Xi Jinping expressed deep condolences and extended sincere sympathies to Mokhber, the family of Raisi, and the Iranian Government and people. Raisi’s tragic death is a great loss to the Iranian people, and the Chinese people also lost a good friend. He said that Raisi had made positive efforts to consolidate and deepen the China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership, noting that with the joint efforts of both sides, the China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership will continue to consolidate and develop.
Incident cause
According to Iranian state media, Raisi arrived in Khoda Afarin County of East Azarbaijan in the early morning of May 19 to attend, along with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev, the inauguration ceremony of the third storage dam to be built on the Aras River, which straddles the two countries’ common border.
Raisi was then traveling in a convoy of three helicopters on the way to the provincial capital Tabriz for the inauguration of a petrochemical complex, when the helicopter carrying him lost communication with the other two approximately 30 minutes after takeoff.
The two other helicopters immediately began a search of the area for about 20 minutes, but were later compelled to make emergency landings due to thick fog and other weather conditions. Russia, Türkiye and other countries in the region sent search and rescue teams or provide technical services. The European Union, at the request of Iran, also activated satellite mapping services to help find the president’s whereabouts.
Later, the deaths of all passengers onboard were confirmed, and the search and rescue operation was ended.
Aircraft crashes are not uncommon in Iran. In January 2011, an Iran Air Boeing 727 carrying 105 passengers and crew crashed near Urmia. In 2018, an Iranian Aseman Airlines plane flying from Tehran to Yasuj crashed in a mountainous area of central Iran, killing 65 people. More recently, a helicopter carrying Iranian Sports Minister Hamid Sajjadi crashed last year as it tried to land at a football field.
However, a serious incident involving a president is an extremely rare event. Raisi’s death was the first time a sitting president has died since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, which toppled the U.S.-backed Shah regime of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and brought the country under the leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the late founder of the Islamic republic.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing and spillover of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, as well as tensions surrounding the Middle East, the tragic deaths of the Iranian president and foreign minister would undoubtedly show an impact on political stability of the country and the region at large.
Iran’s recent response to the U.S. and Israel has been relatively restrained and rational. In April this year, Israel bombed the Iranian Embassy in Syria, resulting in the death of many Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers and senior officials. Two weeks later, Iran and allied armed groups launched coordinated drone and missile strikes directly on Israel in retaliation for the first time. But this did not trigger a large-scale military conflict; instead, both sides have dealt with the crisis in a restrained manner.
The crash came after the U.S. and Iran reportedly held their latest talks in Oman aimed at increasing stability following open clashes between Iran and Israel—demonstrating that Iran maintains a tacit understanding with the U.S. and Israel, and no party wants the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
Iran is a country interlaced with mountains and plateaus, with 90 percent of its land surrounded by plateaus. The site of the crash is located about 600 kilometers northwest of Tehran, adjacent to the border of the Azerbaijani exclave Nakhchivan, with dense trees and complex terrain.
Official explanation for the crash points to bad weather conditions, including rain and fog that hampered visibility during the flight. It is currently suspected the helicopter deviated from its planned route and collided with the mountaintop during an emergency landing.
CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton said there’s a possibility of engine failure and that maintenance of the aircraft would have also played a role. He also pointed to how Iran has been living under sanctions and uses old equipment to transport their high-level leaders.
Aftermath
Since taking office as the eighth president of Iran in 2021, Raisi has pursued a hardline stance. He maintained Iran’s consistent anti-America and anti-Israel policies, supported allies including the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), and tried to ensure the stability of the Iranian Government by strengthening the “axis of resistance,” which includes Iran, Syria and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Moreover, Raisi improved relations with neighboring countries and strengthened cooperation with friendly countries to offset the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran. During his term, Raisi has won the support of many Iranians.
He was able to handle issues including the COVID-19 pandemic and the devaluation of the Iranian currency, demonstrating his pragmatic and flexible governing philosophy. For this reason, Raisi gained the trust of Iran’s Supreme Leader, the 85-year-old Ali Khamenei, and was considered his potential successor.
The death of the second-highest-ranking official in Iran may not bring major changes to the country’s foreign policy and domestic politics in the short term, as it has formed a relatively stable and continuous political structure against U.S. sanctions since 1979.
Article 131 of Iran’s constitution states that in the event that a president dies, resigns, becomes incapacitated, or is dismissed for more than two months, or his term in office ends and the new president is not elected due to obstacles, the first vice president becomes the interim president.
Iran’s First Vice President Mokhber was appointed to the helm of the executive branch, and is duty-bound to, in cooperation with the parliament speaker and judiciary chief, make the arrangements for the election of the new president within 50 days.
However, in the long term, the tragedy brings uncertainties to the Iranian presidential election and the successor to the supreme leader.
The upcoming election might intensify factional disputes within the country. Iran has always been swaying between moderates and hardliners. Earlier this year, its moderate former President Hassan Rouhani said he had been disqualified from running for reelection to the country’s influential Assembly of Experts.
The 88-seat assembly is Iran’s supreme authority responsible for electing, supervising, and dismissing Iran’s Supreme Leader. Since 1999, Rouhani has served as a member of the assembly for three consecutive terms.
The competition for the successor to the supreme leader would be even fiercer. The possible successor now includes Khamenei’s son, senior IRGC official Mojtaba Khamenei. If he is appointed, the IRGC would strengthen its role in the government, which may raise dissatisfaction among Iran’s religious conservatives. Moreover, as the second son of Khamenei, this kind of inheritance would not be conducive to soothing the emotions of the general public.
It remains to be seen how the caretaker government will handle the current troubles, both internal and external. Mokhber has expertise in Iran’s financial sector and maintains close ties with the IRGC and political spheres. However, his prestige in Iran is not high and he is likely to generally follow Raisi’s foreign policy.
If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu takes advantage of this transition period and intensifies the crackdown on Hezbollah and Hamas, how to coordinate the members of “axis of resistance” to quell public anger, not to become further involved in regional conflict, and to maintain friendly relations with neighboring countries, will be a major challenge for the short-term Mokhber-led government as well as for the future elected president of Iran. –The Daily Mail-Beijing Review news exchange item
