Pakistan’s widening trade deficit with regional countries cause for concern

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s trade deficit with nine regional countries surged by 49% to $9.506 billion in the fiscal year 2023-24 from $6.382 billion in the previous fiscal, driven primarily by a sharp increase in imports.

While Pakistan’s exports to the regional countries experienced mixed trends, a substantial rise in imports overshadowed the export gains.

According to the data from State Bank of Pakistan, the country’s exports to Afghanistan, China, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India, Iran, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives increased by 20.02% to $4.334 billion in FY24 from $3.611 billion in FY23. However, imports from these countries surged by 38.49% to $13.840 billion in FY24 from $9.993 billion in the previous year, exacerbating the trade deficit.

China remains the largest contributor to Pakistan’s import bill within the region. Imports from China soared by 39.78% to $13.506 billion in FY24 from $9.662 billion in FY23. This sharp increase accounted for a substantial portion of the overall trade deficit.

On the export front, Pakistan’s exports to China also grew by 33.68% to $2.707 billion in FY24, compared to $2.025 billion in the previous fiscal year.

Pakistan’s trade relations with India saw a modest uptick. Pakistan’s imports from India rose by 8.87% to $206.89 million in FY24 from $190.04 million in the previous year. Conversely, exports to India surged significantly to $3.669 million from a mere $0.329 million in FY23. Despite the low base, the increase in exports to India marks a notable development.

Pakistan’s trade with Afghanistan presented a mixed picture. Exports to Afghanistan increased by 6.07% to $554.008 million in FY24 from $522.271 million in FY23. Notably, Pakistan has facilitated exports to Afghanistan by allowing transactions in Pakistani rupee.

However, imports from Afghanistan dropped by 21.95% to $11.923 million from $15.277 million in the previous year. This decrease is partially attributed to Kabul’s recent ban on fruit exports to Pakistan following the imposition of duties and taxes on Afghan fruit and vegetable imports.

Pakistan’s trade with other regional countries displayed varied trends. Exports to Bangladesh fell by 13.27% to $666.516 million in FY24 from $768.548 million in FY23, while imports decreased by 26.73% to $56.555 million.

In contrast, exports to Sri Lanka surged by 37.83% to $391.226 million from $283.882 million, with imports increasing by 21.53% to $58.302 million. Exports to Nepal decreased by 4.67% to $2.711 million, with negligible imports. Conversely, exports to the Maldives increased by 7.86% to $9.212 million from $8.540 million previously.  –INP