From Hamish De Bretton-Gordon
As Europe awakens to the stark realisation that an isolationist White House under Donald Trump is no longer an implausible nightmare, but the most likely reality come November, the narrative that Russia now has the upper hand in its vicious war – one that was, lest we forget, only intended to last three days – has become increasingly common.
Look at the “stalemate” on the battlefield, the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive last year, waning Western support, and Moscow successfully tilting its economy on to a war footing, and it is easy to believe that Russia holds all the cards. But this is not so, as a story reported by The Telegraph this week helped to illustrate.
President Vladimir Putin has been forced to beef up defences around his palace north of Moscow to defend against deep Ukrainian drone strikes. Satellite images reveal at least seven medium-range air defence systems have been stationed close to the perimeter of the sprawling forest estate on the shores of Lake Valdai.
Does this sound like a country about to score a decisive victory? Ever since Kyiv’s drones and missiles have been able to hit targets deep into Russian territory, it has been destroying air bases, oil depots, command nodes, and – most visibly striking – the Black Sea fleet. All this has forced Moscow’s military command, to quote the Institute for the Study of War think tank in Washington, “to prioritise limited air defence assets to cover what it deems high-value targets”.
It tells you a lot about modern Russia that luxury villas hundreds of miles from the battlefield are considered “high value”, both in terms of what the Kremlin wants to protect and where Kyiv can now target effectively. Ukraine’s security sources said way back in January that they had flown a drone right over Putin’s palace en route to attack an oil terminal near St Petersburg, so we know it can be done.
A key element of Ukraine’s success with drones has been Western powers loosening the handcuffs in terms of support and permissions. We have been assisting with drone development and recently signalled to Kyiv that we are willing to allow it to use our technology to strike specific targets inside Russia. While in the West we become increasingly pessimistic, Moscow clearly thinks that Kyiv remains a threat, forcing it to stretch its defences far from the frontline.
It was for the same reason that the Kremlin’s recent offensive on Ukraine’s second city of Kharkiv failed: Putin’s army was forced to stop due to devastating drone and missile strikes. Imagine, therefore, if we in the West were to be bolder, loosening the straps entirely and allowing Kyiv to use our long-range missiles – not just drones – to hit weapons depots and critical targets far deeper into Russian territory. Perhaps it would have the added benefit of waking up Russian citizens to the reality of what it means to be fighting a war that has cost their country more than 350,000 casualties.
The MoD stated last Friday that Russian forces had lost 70,000 men in the past two months alone, at a rate of more than 1,000 per day. This is likely to only increase throughout this summer, especially if Putin is using his army’s air defence assets to protect his own property.
I don’t care what people say about the supposed “resilience” of the Russian army – those levels of casualties are not sustainable indefinitely.
Moscow is only willing to take such a pounding because Putin thinks he only needs to survive until November and then Trump will give him what he wants: at least 18 per cent of Ukrainian territory. But if we in Europe can continue to support Kyiv regardless of the US stance – a big ask, which would require a far more proactive approach – then by early next year Moscow would have to start considering something that it has done everything to avoid: enlisting the men of Moscow and St Petersburg, who Putin has tried to shield from the war so as to not sow unrest at home.
Fundamentally, Russia is far more vulnerable than it first appears. Kyiv has adapted its strategy successfully given its limited resources. What we do in the next four months could shape the security of Europe for generations, and the Western leaders who met in the UK yesterday should unshackle Ukraine in order that it can gain a decisive advantage. For this war is not over. –FP
