KARACHI: With the U.S. departed in disarray, Afghanistan’s newly ensconced Taliban regime is looking to China for major investments in the coming six months, but experts expect Beijing to tread a very cautious line.
Zabiullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesperson, said earlier this week that the new government wants to join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC, the flagship $50 billion Pakistan component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
A source with close links to the Taliban told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity that China has been courting the Taliban since 2018 on possible projects in Afghanistan. “There are verbal agreements between Beijing and Taliban about investments,” he said. “Once the Taliban government gains global recognition, China will start building infrastructure projects in war-torn Afghanistan.”
The source expected China to be not much concerned about human rights — with those relating to women and girls most in jeopardy — and to be more focused on effective governance and dealing with Uyghur militants.
On Wednesday, a virtual meeting of the foreign ministers of Afghanistan’s neighbors — China, Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan — was hosted by Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Pakistan’s foreign minister. “The situation in Afghanistan remains complex and fluid,” Qureshi later tweeted. “We hope the political situation stabilizes leading to normalcy soon. The new reality requires us to discard old lenses, develop new insights and proceed with a realistic, pragmatic approach,” he said.
During the meeting, China promised emergency aid of $31 million to Afghanistan, including grain, winter supplies, vaccines and medicines. “What China can do now is maintain necessary contacts with the Taliban in the fields of normal economic activities and people-to-people exchanges,” reported Global Times, Beijing’s English-language mouthpiece.
Andrew Small, a senior trans-Atlantic fellow with the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund, believes the Taliban’s immediate investment requests give China leverage. Beijing will provide some immediate economic support, but proceed to greater involvement more gingerly.
“Beijing will be happy to dangle promises and engage in talks on the BRI and CPEC extensions, but will not move ahead with anything on the ground until they are confident of political and security conditions,” Small told. –Agencies
