By Josef Gregory
Mahoney
Introduced by President Xi Jinping in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative is a key feature of China’s foreign policy, consistent with Xi’s push to advance what he describes as a new era of major-country diplomacy. Substantively, the initiative aims to promote mutual economic development and inter-regional connectivity.
This is consistent with China’s need to assume a greater international leadership role given its fast rising position as a global power in an increasingly multipolar world, and can be described as a liberation-oriented effort that’s trying, once and for all, to break cycles of underdevelopment and poverty, reversing colonial and neo-colonial exploitations, and resisting old and new hegemonies.
Belt and Road is a succinct English translation of the Chinese term, “one belt, one road” (yidai yilu). Belt refers to the Silk Road Economic Belt, a network of overland road and rail routes the initiative has already built, is building or has proposed, primarily through Central Asia. Its name deliberately recalls the historical Silk Road, a network of trade routes that preceded it centuries ago, connecting east and west in positive ways for more than 1,000 years. Road refers to the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, and includes sea routes and ports linking Chinese waters with Pacific island nations, Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe, with Latin America on the horizon.
Studies published by leading scholars and international organizations have emphasized the transformative effect Belt and Road projects can have on the world economy and, above all, the Global South. For example, last year, the World Bank estimated these projects will increase participating countries’ trade by an average of 4.1 percent while also cutting their trade costs by as much as 2.2 percent.
Developing countries in East Asia and the Pacific region that are joining Belt and Road projects might expect GDP increases in the range of 2.6-3.9 percent.
Also, last year, the Center for Economics and Business Research, an economic consultancy based in London, published a study estimating Belt and Road projects will help grow the global GDP by $7.1 trillion per year by 2040, particularly as improved infrastructure makes trade cheaper and easier. This explains why 151 countries around the world have already signed up for inclusion in the initiative, and why more are expected to join.
Some leading international media have referred mistakenly to the Belt and Road Initiative as being written into China’s Constitution in 2018 (that said, we shouldn’t be surprised if it’s included in possible amendments this year during the annual National People’s Congress session in March). However, the initiative is mentioned in the Communist Party of China Constitution in a key section discussing China’s foreign policy values.
There, it is linked with following “a path of peaceful development” consistent with a “win-win opening-up strategy,” which not only helps foster a “favorable international environment for China’s reform, opening up, and modernization,” but does so in ways that promote “peace, development, fairness, justice, democracy, and freedom… to build a community with a shared future for mankind.” The commitment of working to “develop good neighborly relations between China and its surrounding countries” is being asserted, along with working to “strengthen unity and cooperation between China and other developing countries.” In this context, the initiative is noted to follow the “principle of achieving shared growth through discussion and collaboration.”
Counter-initiatives
Although some have fretted over it as an initiative that will position China as a new global superpower, and perhaps the only superpower, these kinds of narratives are generally based on misunderstandings and, in some cases, intentional fear-mongering. Nevertheless, the Belt and Road Initiative has encouraged other countries to more actively engage in trying to advance similar efforts in a competitive, if not zero-sum, mode of strategic thinking, but none of the West’s counter-initiatives have yet demonstrated the Belt and Road Initiative’s scope or commitment, including an mishmash of primarily U.S.-led initiatives, including the Blue Dot Network (2019), the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (2019), and B3W or Build Back Better World (2021). The key difference here of course is that the China-proposed initiative aims primarily to help participating countries, especially developing countries, develop, while the U.S.-led efforts aim principally to knock back China, i.e., a developing country the U.S. fears will effectively resist American hegemony.
On the one hand, if such counter-initiatives also help developing countries advance, then such competition should be applauded, as some scholars have argued. On the other hand, there are reasons to worry that these alternatives only offer empty promises, simply aiming to dissuade more countries from joining the Belt and Road Initiative. However, if some of these anti-China efforts gain traction, they risk creating uncoordinated projects that may imperil efforts overall, and threaten the wellbeing of developing countries struggling to realize their potential. This raises the specter of a postmodern imperialist competition, and may well be the byproduct of U.S. moves to foster “great-power competition.”
–The Daily Mail-Beijing Review news exhange item
