Israel’s extensive strikes on nuclear and military sites across Iran early this morning – the largest such attack since the 1980s – are an unnerving escalation in a region already living at the edge of widespread conflict.
The Israeli military described the strikes as “pre-emptive”, but they are more likely to ignite a dangerous chain of events than they are to prevent one. The high-profile Iranian victims are thought to include two nuclear scientists and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander-in-Chief Maj Gen Hossein Salami, as well as chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces Maj Gen Mohammad Bagheri. Initial Iranian retaliation was already in play within hours of attacks and where this cycle of violence and destruction will end is increasingly unclear.
A combination of several factors has marched the Middle East to this point. Tehran’s reckless nuclear programme, which the UN nuclear watchdog yesterday said was in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, has been a cause of global concern. However, an Israel military attack leads to further instability, though in past weeks this appeared increasingly inevitable, especially given the country has been on a near-permanent war footing since the start of its invasion of Gaza. Add to this combustible mix Washington’s inability – or unwillingness – to restrain its Israeli allies, and the stage is set for the kind of conflagration seen earlier.
De-escalation is needed, and it is needed right now because further direct conflict between Israel and Iran could spiral into something more than another close call to all-out war. Already, we have seen Israeli drones and warplanes hit targets in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and now Iran. Tehran has suggested that it could widen the scale of this confrontation, with Iranian Defence Minister Gen Aziz Nasirzadeh saying that “if a conflict is imposed on [Iran] … all US bases are within reach and we will boldly target them in host countries”.
Bombing runs and sabre rattling do nothing to guarantee any country’s security. On the contrary, they undermine civilian efforts to defuse regional tensions. Israel’s dangerous power play against Iran casts a shadow over Oman-mediated talks between the US and Iran that are still – for now – scheduled to continue on Sunday.
Although both sides have traded barbs about the talks’ progress, questions about both parties’ seriousness now appear more pointed, not only in light of Israel’s operation and Iran’s admonishment by the IAEA but in the fact that the US has been preparing to evacuate non-essential staff from Middle East. If there is a lack of seriousness about diplomatic engagement, then it is the people of the Middle East who will suffer most.
In Iran, many residential areas were struck in Israel’s operation, damaging people’s homes and livelihoods, and leaving civilians to pick up the pieces. In Israel, the civilian population will be bracing for Iranian retaliation.
The people of the Middle East have had enough of war and destruction – something that both sides have contributed to. Relying on the Iranian government’s instinct for self-preservation is not a strategy for regional peace and security, nor is allowing unilateral action from a bellicose Israel, whose embattled coalition government is grappling with internal political divisions.
This is the moment for de-escalation and to let regionally-supported mediation do its work. The alternative is further escalation that leads to the possibility of a conflict that no-one can control.
