From Chris Doyle
As the Democratic National Convention wound down last week, one was left wondering if the positions of either the Biden administration or a potential Kamala Harris White House on Israel-Palestine had become any clearer.
It remains a divisive issue within the party. The Palestinian issue was tightly controlled at the convention.
Not a single Palestinian-American was permitted to speak. This went down badly, not least with Arab American voters in key states such as Michigan. Even Harris’ speech contained the usual carefully constructed ambiguities. She specified the atrocities against Israelis last October but could not name one atrocity, let alone the perpetrator, against the Palestinians. Donald Trump, in contrast, is under close to zero pressure to be anything other than a die-hard supporter of the Israeli far-right coalition government and hostile to Iran. On this issue, he is in a comfort zone.
But for President Joe Biden and Harris, Israel-Palestine is a migraine-level headache. Muddling through might be the most apt way to describe Democratic policies.
Constructive ambiguity is not a strategy. It is a mechanism to bypass awkward domestic pinch points such as the party’s convention and the November elections. This sort of works on the domestic American scene, but it fails spectacularly when it comes to the Middle East and on the ground. This may come back to hurt Harris in the weeks ahead.
This ambiguity has coursed through the hyperactive diplomacy of the last few weeks. Senior US figures and foreign ministers of allied states have all jumped on planes and dutifully done their tours of the region. The messaging is drearily familiar: we support Israel’s right to defend itself, we urge all parties to pull back and de-escalate, and the people of Gaza have suffered too much. But it is never stated what is causing that suffering.
The US markets a ceasefire deal without a ceasefire. Instead of an end to hostilities by all sides, it simply proposes a hostage-prisoner exchange during a pause in Israeli bombardment.
None of this impresses the actors in the Middle East. If the US truly wants a ceasefire, it has all the tools required to coerce Israeli acquiescence, should the lead actors in Washington so choose.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for starters, knows the Biden administration is not going to cut the military umbilical cord to Israel, as evidenced by the $20 billion of arms sales approved this month. He smells weakness in his sleep.
He tolerates the US’ diplomatic roadshow but never engages with the substance. Biden presented a plan at the end of May claiming it was Israel’s, something Netanyahu has never owned up to.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, forever failing in the Middle East, embarrassed himself by declaring last week that Israel had accepted an American “bridging proposal.” Netanyahu repeated the trick, his silence speaking volumes about his opposition. Note that we have only vague indications as to the contents of this bridging proposal, which appears more a bridge between the US and Israel than one between belligerents.
Anytime a deal approaches, Netanyahu tosses additional obstacles in the way or escalates the regional temperature with a provocative assassination in Beirut, Damascus or Tehran. The latest hurdle is the insistence that Israel retains military control of the Philadelphi Corridor, which itself is a violation of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty. Be in no doubt, Netanyahu has plenty of other landmines and traps to deploy if needed.
Even better for the Israeli leader, every time he escalates matters in the region, triggering Iranian threats of retaliation, the US and its loyal states all circle the wagons around Israel and mute their concerns about Gaza.
Palestinians see straight through US policy. They cannot see Biden and Blinken as serious as long as they refuse to pressure Israel and continue to supply the bombs that decimate Palestinian schools and hospitals in Gaza. Warm words and empathy are seen for what they are — hollow soundbites.
It is seen as sick when Harris says she will “always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself,” as if flattening schools acting as shelters is in any way defensive. –FP
