From Farhan Ahmad
As the United States votes today in what is shaping up to be one of the most closely contested elections in recent history, the world, including Pakistan, is watching with keen interest. Today’s election between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican challenger Donald Trump is pivotal, not only for American citizens but for the broader international landscape, including South Asia. With polls showing both candidates in a near tie, this election is poised to impact diplomatic relations and policy orientations around the globe and Pakistan’s strategic position in South Asia places it firmly within the scope of American foreign policy changes.
For Pakistan, the results will shape not only bilateral relations but also influence how Pakistan maneuvers within the complex regional dynamics, particularly in its relationship with China. Kamala Harris, currently the sitting Vice President, represents a continuity of the Biden administration’s policies. Should she secure victory, her approach to foreign policy is expected to reflect Biden’s focus on multilateralism, climate change, democracy and human rights. Harris’s administration could align closely with U.S. allies in South Asia, a region growing in strategic importance due to its proximity to the Indo-Pacific. This would mean stronger cooperation with democratic allies, including India, as the U.S. strengthens its presence in the region to counterbalance China’s influence.
Pakistan, which maintains a strategic partnership with China, may find itself under increased pressure from a Harris administration. Her stance on human rights is likely to be more stringent than Trump’s, meaning that Harris may push for reforms within Pakistan in areas such as press freedom, religious tolerance and minority rights. For instance, under Biden, there was significant concern over Pakistan’s treatment of minorities and the media, issues Harris is likely to continue emphasizing. This could create challenges for Pakistan, which has to balance the expectations of an ally like the U.S. with its internal policies and socio-political dynamics.
However, Harris’s likely support for multilateral aid and development funding could be advantageous to Pakistan, particularly if her administration chooses to address Pakistan’s vulnerabilities related to climate change and economic instability.
In terms of regional stability, Harris’s victory could lead to more collaboration on maintaining peace in Afghanistan, an area of mutual interest for both the U.S. and Pakistan. The Biden administration had a vested interest in stabilizing Afghanistan through diplomatic and humanitarian channels and Harris has signaled her intent to prioritize stability in South Asia. Pakistan’s strategic influence with the Afghan Taliban and other regional actors positions it as a critical partner in achieving this goal.
However, Harris’s administration might also expect more stringent oversight of cross-border movements and pressure Pakistan to take a stronger stance against any elements that could destabilize Afghanistan.
In contrast, a Trump victory would bring an entirely different set of dynamics to U.S.-Pakistan relations. Known for his direct, often transactional approach to diplomacy, Trump’s strategy has traditionally been more pragmatic and less constrained by considerations of human rights or democratic values. His policies focus largely on national security and counterterrorism, both areas where Pakistan plays a critical role. During his last term, Trump fostered a functional relationship with Pakistan that emphasized security cooperation over other issues. A Trump-led White House might prioritize Pakistan’s role in counter-terrorism and security in South Asia, particularly in preventing extremist elements from destabilizing the region.
A Trump victory would also likely align more with Pakistan’s internal policies, as he has shown less inclination to press countries on human rights or media freedom issues. His strong stance against China could, however, place Pakistan in a challenging position given its economic and strategic partnership with Beijing. CPEC, a cornerstone of Pakistan’s infrastructure development and economic strategy, remains an essential part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Under a Trump administration, Pakistan may feel pressure to distance itself from China, although the feasibility of such a move remains complex given Pakistan’s economic dependency on Chinese investments and projects.
The ongoing instability in Afghanistan is another factor that both candidates are likely to approach differently. Trump’s policy towards Afghanistan during his previous term was often criticized for its abruptness, as evidenced by the sudden withdrawal of U.S. forces.
If he is re-elected, Trump may continue prioritizing security over development, which could result in limited U.S. involvement in Afghanistan’s rebuilding. For Pakistan, this could mean a significant security role, with more reliance on Pakistan to manage stability across its western border. However, if instability spills over, Pakistan may bear the brunt of its consequences, including border security challenges, refugee influx, and economic strains.
Moreover, the economic policies of both candidates could have a direct impact on Pakistan’s economy. Harris is likely to continue Biden’s emphasis on climate-friendly policies and international development, areas that could benefit Pakistan, given its economic vulnerabilities and climate-related challenges. Her administration may seek to re-establish international economic support for Pakistan and other developing nations. Trump, on the other hand, would likely focus on “America First” policies, with an emphasis on domestic growth over foreign aid. –FP
