DM Monitoring
WASHINGTON: Hindered by frayed ties with Europe, limited leverage and doubts about President Donald Trump’s devotion to democracy in Belarus, the United States is gingerly trying to nudge the former Soviet state toward new elections without provoking Russia.
Current and former U.S. officials acknowledge the challenge of promoting change in Belarus, which faces protests over an Aug. 9 election that the opposition says was rigged to extend the 26-year reign of President Alexander Lukashenko.
Lukashenko, who denies fraud, has responded with a violent crackdown on the protests and shown no sign of backing down despite sanctions imposed by three Baltic states on Monday and the threat, by a senior U.S. State Department official on Tuesday, of impending U.S. sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his interest in Belarus, which is a conduit for Russian oil and gas to Europe and is vital to Moscow’s European defence strategy. Russia has formed a police force to back Lukashenko if necessary and Putin has invited him to Moscow for talks.
Washington wants a way to bolster democracy in Belarus that avoids Russian intervention, something which – as U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun told Russian officials last week in Moscow – would further damage U.S.-Russian ties.Biegun also visited Ukraine, which borders Belarus, and Vienna, home to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), where he promoted the regional security group that includes Belarus, European nations, Russia and the United States as a vehicle to find a solution. “This is not a contest between East and West, and certainly not a contest between Russia and the United States,” he said on Friday, calling for violence against protesters to stop, those “unjustly detained” to be freed and “a truly free and fair election under independent observation.” Experts said he has an uphill climb.
“He has to work in the face of a lot of friction and unnecessary tension in U.S.-European relations and in the face of President Trump’s own apparent ambivalence about supporting democracy,” said Dan Fried, the former top U.S. diplomat for Europe who is now at the Atlantic Council think tank. The Republican president, running against Democratic former vice president Joe Biden in the Nov. 3 U.S. election, has said little about Belarus, leaving some analysts with the impression he has scant interest.
“I like seeing democracy,” he told reporters on Aug. 18. “It doesn’t seem like it’s too much democracy there.”
A senior U.S. official said the United States and European Union were closely coordinating to find a way that avoids overt Russian intervention and opens “space” for a dialogue between the opposition and Lukashenko on transitioning from his rule. “We are not looking to impose a solution or suggest that we need to have a seat at the table,” the official said on condition of anonymity. A European diplomat, however, saw little chance for the United States and the EU to succeed via the OSCE because Belarus and Russia, as members of a group that operates by consensus, would be unlikely to go along.
