DM Monitoring
NEW YORK: The much-anticipated US midterm elections on Tuesday will determine whether President Donald Trump can continue relying on a Republican-controlled Congress or face a Democratic majority with the power to block his agenda, investigate his administration and challenge his spending priorities.
Significantly, dozens of Muslim-American candidates are competing for seats in Congress and state legislatures, as political allegiances shift due to inflation mainly stemming from the US-Israel war on Iran, the Gaza tragedy, and rising anti-Muslim rhetoric in the U.S.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate to control both chambers. Republicans currently hold 218 House seats against the Democrats’ 214, while the Republican advantage in the Senate is 53 to 47.
Midterm elections take place two years into a president’s four-year term. Voters will elect all 435 members of the House and fill 35 Senate seats, roughly a third of the upper chamber.
A forecasting tool from Harvard University that analyses and compiles multiple polls and historical data suggests that Democrats have a 96% chance of taking the House of Representatives and a 76% chance of taking the Senate.
Nearly 40 million Americans had already voted by post or in person through early voting, according to NBC News figures. Reuters estimated that more than 100 million people could vote if turnout resembled the 2022 midterms, when the US Election Assistance Commission recorded more than 112 million ballots.
The cost of living, Trump’s immigration policies and the Iran war are among the issues driving Americans to vote.
The latest national polling points to a difficult political environment for President Trump, who has been feverishly campaigning in support of the Republican candidates. A Pew Research Center survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 found that only 30% of Americans approved of his performance, while 68% disapproved.
Among registered voters, 44% viewed their congressional vote as a vote against Trump, compared with just 19% who saw it as a vote for him. Democratic supporters were also more engaged and motivated to vote than their Republican counterparts.
Economic dissatisfaction adds to the pressure, analysts said. A Harris Poll conducted from September 24 to October 3 found that 61% of Americans believed the country was effectively in a recession.
The election therefore presents President Trump with more than a test of Republican campaign strength. It will measure whether his administration can retain congressional support amid historically low approval ratings, economic frustration and public opposition to the war against Iran, or whether voters will give his opponents greater power to challenge his presidency.
With 48 hours to go before polls close in the US state of Michigan, few midterm races in the country have captured as much attention as the contest playing out between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, a staunch pro-Israel politician, who has been spending million of dollars in TV ads.
Rogers is seeking to become Michigan’s first Republican U.S. senator in 25 years, as Democrats try to hold onto the seat.
El-Sayed, an American physician of Egyptian descent, could become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate if he defeats Rogers. The race is among those that could affect the balance of power in Congress.
The Muslim candidate leads Rogers by 49.1 percent to 45.6 percent, according to the latest polling average published by RealClearPolling, based on surveys conducted through Oct. 29.
The situation led President Trump to intensify his anti-Muslim rhetoric against El-Sayed on Sunday, portraying him as a “jihadist’ and a threat to national security and questioning his loyalty to the United States in remarks that drew a sharp rebuke from a former top Arab American ally.
El-Sayed has called attacks on his loyalty to the country “shameful” and repeatedly denied any ties to extremist groups. The President’s remarks were condemned by Bishara Bahbah, a founder of Arab Americans for Trump, the group that helped lead the president’s outreach to Arab American voters in 2024.
“The president’s statements are out of line,” he said in a phone interview. “They are crossing a red line. They are racist.”
With Republicans on the defensive over inflation, soaring fuel prices and the Iran war, the president has been trying to generate turnout by claiming that El-Sayed and other Democrats are existential threats to America, instead of electoral rivals.
Trump, who imposed a travel ban targeting several predominantly Muslim countries during his first term, has increasingly leaned into anti-Muslim rhetoric as Election Day approaches. He also attacked Democratic Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota at Sunday’s rally, where he declared that he had come to Michigan “to keep a jihadist Muslim Brotherhood member from becoming a United States senator.”
Responding to Trump, who also regularly mocks his name, El-Sayed told supporters at a rally in Grand Rapids later Sunday that he doesn’t care how Trump pronounces or misrepresents it.
“I don’t even care that he remembers my whole name because he can just go on and call me ‘senator’ after November,” El-Sayed said, drawing cheers. “I will be Senator Muhammad to you, bro.”
Sen. Bernie Sanders, speaking at the Grand Rapids rally, said Trump and his allies were using Islamophobia because they have “nothing to say” about the issues most important to working people, such as health care, housing and income inequality.
“All they can do is foment hatred and divisiveness,” Sanders said.
Also, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar have both won re-election and are continuing their political careers in Congress as the first two Muslim women to ever serve in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Ms. Tlaib, the first woman of Palestinian descent in Congress, secured a fourth term representing Michigan, benefiting from strong support from the Arab-American community in Dearborn. Ms. Omar, a former refugee from Somalia, won a third term in Minnesota, where she represents the 5th District, including Minneapolis and its suburbs.
Both Tlaib and Omar, as also El-Sayed are outspoken critics of U.S. military support for Israel, especially in its ongoing conflict with Gaza.
