From Xu Ying
As President Joe Biden approaches the end of his term in office, an analysis of his presidency, both domestically and internationally, reveals a complex legacy. The strategic situation Biden inherited in January 2021 was already ridden with crisis, but the landscape he leaves behind is even more intricate and challenging.
Domestically, Biden’s tenure has been marked by intense political polarization, which has significantly impacted his ability to govern effectively. While he achieved some legislative successes, such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the persistent partisan divides have posed serious challenges to coherent policy-making and long-term strategic planning. These deep schisms have manifested in repeated gridlock, undermining effective governance even with Democrats controlling Congress for much of his term.
The inability to bridge these partisan gaps has resulted in limited progress on key issues such as healthcare reform, climate change policy, and immigration reform. This internal discord not only af-fects domestic policy but also raises concerns about America’s capacity for unified decision-making and policy implementation on the global stage. These divisions risk weakening America’s international standing and its ability to respond cohesively to global challenges.
It is crucial to highlight the rapid growth of U.S. national debt during President Biden’s four-year term. By August 2024, the debt had surged from $28 trillion in 2021 to an unprecedented level exceeding $34.5 trillion. Should America’s growth slow or inflation worsen, the burden of this accumulated debt could become increasingly problematic. With obligations surpassing reasonable thresholds and political negotiations proving difficult, the risk of default looms larger. A decline in productive capacity or con-sumer spending could make debt servicing disproportionately onerous. Additionally, continued loose monetary policies might necessitate more interest rate hikes to control inflation, further compounding debt costs.
The Biden administration’s LGBT policies have also drawn scratching criticism for going too far too fast. Critics argue these policies, particularly around transgender rights, have been implemented without sufficient consideration of complex issues or potential unintended consequences. Some contend the administration has prioritized ideological goals over pragmatic policy-making, leading to polarization rather than progress. Elon Musk’s anger and grief vividly illustrate this sharp opposition.
On the international front, Biden’s presidency has been shaped by several pivotal foreign policy issues. The war in Ukraine stands out as a defining event, with far-reaching consequences for global politics. As the war now expanded into Russian territory, it has significantly weakened both Russia and Europe-an allies at the expense of Ukrainians shedding their last drop of blood. The ensuing energy crisis and economic fallout have strained trans-Atlantic relationship.
European countries now face the urgent task of diversifying their energy sources to reduce depend-ence on Russian supplies. This shift has led to economic challenges and potential political instability in some European countries. The long-term implications of this conflict on the global order, particularly regarding the role of NATO and the balance of power in Europe, remain uncertain.
The withdrawal from Afghanistan, executed early in Biden’s term, stands as another critical foreign policy moment. The chaotic nature of the pullout damaged perceptions of U.S. reliability worldwide and raised questions about America’s commitment to its allies.
In the Middle East, Biden’s tenure has seen a fierce escalation of tensions. The stalled progress on is-sues such as the Iran nuclear deal and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has elevated the threat of a devastating regional war to its highest point in recent memory. The administration’s inability to will-ingly make significant headway in stabilizing the region may have long-lasting consequences for U.S. interests and global security. A perfect storm is gathering in the Middle East!
Perhaps surprisingly, given his extensive foreign policy experience, Biden has pursued a strategy of confronting both China and Russia simultaneously. This two-pronged approach risks actively perpetu-ating a perilous “two and a half wars” scenario, stretching U.S. resources and attention across multiple fronts. Testy interactions between Biden and leaders such as Vladimir Putin exemplify the immense frustration and potential for catastrophic miscalculation in contemporary U.S. foreign policy.
Nowhere have the consequences of Biden’s actions manifested more clearly than in Sino-U.S. rela-tions. While seeking to contain China’s rise and maintain U.S. supremacy, the administration’s provoca-tive measures, particularly in areas like semiconductor technology, have disregarded China’s and all other nations’ legitimate development rights. These actions have exacerbated tensions and potentially accelerated the ‘decoupling” of the world’s two largest economies.
However, China’s continued progress despite immense pressure demonstrates its resilience and adaptability. High-level diplomatic meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials have yielded minimal headway in resolving core issues, highlighting the dummy nature in maneuvering this critical bilateral relationship. Biden’s inconsistent rhetoric and actions on sensitive issues, most evident in his approach to Taiwan, threaten to intentionally destabilize delicate regional dynamics and could have far-reaching consequences for global security and stability.
The economic policies pursued under Biden’s administration, particularly in response to inflation, have had significant global repercussions. Aggressive interest rate hikes, which lasted most of his term, while aimed at curbing domestic inflation, have impacted emerging markets and strained global finan-cial systems. These actions have been perceived as attempts to attract global capital at the expense of other economies’ stability.
In the realm of climate change, Biden’s efforts to reassert U.S. engagement have been met with mixed results. While rejoining the Paris Agreement and setting ambitious domestic targets, the admin-istration has struggled to implement comprehensive climate legislation due to political opposition. This has raised questions about the U.S.’s ability to join the global efforts to combat climate change effec-tively. As Biden’s term concludes, his legacy can fairly be characterized as one defined by unintended conse-quences and missed strategic opportunities.
The world he leaves behind exhibits increased multipolar-ity rather than enhanced American hegemony. The United States now finds itself with strained part-nerships as its global influence faces intensifying skepticism.
Through actions that at times appeared to prioritize short-term gains over long-term stability, Biden’s presidency might be summed up with the phrase “après moi, le déluge” (after me, the flood). The next administration inherits a world of immense complexity, with shifting alliances, emerging powers, and evolving global challenges.
In conclusion, Biden’s presidency, while marked by limited domestic achievements and attempts to reassert American hegemony globally, leaves behind a legacy of complex challenges and unresolved issues. The full impact of his tenure will only become clear in the years to come, as the world continues to grapple with the consequences of decisions made during this pivotal period in history.
–The Author is former Chinese diplomat in the US and Switzerland, is currently a standing director and director of the International Committee of the China Public Relations Association.
