What can we expect at the next stage of economic development?

By Wang Changlin

High-quality development will be the focus during China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period, according to proposals of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee for the formulation of the plan and the long-range objectives through 2035.
This priority is based on assessment of the stage, environment and conditions for the country’s development. Accordingly, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee in October made the transformation of the growth model the primary task in that period to produce better quality, higher efficiency and more robust drivers.
The background
Since the 18th CPC National Congress in 2012, China has entered a new normal in economic development with a vision of innovative, coordinated, green and open development that is for everyone. The 19th CPC National Congress in 2017 underlined that the economy is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development.
It’s both necessary and urgent to adopt the new strategy, which is essential for sustained and healthy economic development. The principal contradiction facing Chinese society is that between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life.
After becoming a moderately prosperous society in all respects, China will build itself into a modern socialist country in an all-round way. In the new stage, demand, supply and the potential growth rate are undergoing profound changes. So if high-speed growth is pursued still regardless of the actual situation, there would be risks.
The rules of economic development show that when a country enters the middle and later periods of industrialization, modernization can be completed only by shifting from scale- and speed-oriented growth to one that is quality- and efficiency-focused. With the novel coronavirus disease wreaking havoc, China, to forestall and defuse various kinds of risks and address challenges, needs to focus more on improving the quality of its development. This requires commitment to the new development philosophy, deepening supply-side structural reform and transforming the growth model to deliver real benefits to the people.
The focus of economic development accelerated shift in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) period. With new progress in urbanization, regional integration and institutional improvement, the Chinese economy has achieved better quality, efficiency, fairness, sustainability and security.
Economic growth has stayed within a reasonable range. The GDP increased over 6.5 percent annually on average in 2016-19 and reached close to 100 trillion yuan ($15.2 trillion) in 2019, with the per-capita GDP exceeding $10,000. Agricultural production has remained stable while industrial performance and services have registered fast growth as productivity improved. The fundamental role of consumption and the function of investment have been brought into effective play.
Quality and effectiveness continue to improve. The domestic market and demand have boosted the economy with consumption’s contribution to the GDP growth surpassing 60 percent in 2016-19. Substantial results have been achieved in supply-side structural reform and the industrial structure has been upgraded with hi-tech and equipment manufacturing expanding rapidly. New products and business models such as the shared economy, platform economy and digital economy are on the rise.
The agricultural supply structure has been optimized and there is an accelerated integration among primary, secondary and tertiary industries in rural areas. In 2019, the service industry, driven more by innovation and improved labor productivity, contributed 59.4 percent to the economic rise. That year, an average of 20,000 new enterprises were established every day.
The commercialization of 5G, technological breakthroughs in information, biology and aerospace and thriving artificial intelligence and big data have all added vigor to China’s economy, resulting in it climbing up to the 14th place in the Global Innovation Index, the annual ranking of countries compiled by the New York-based Cornell University, business school INSEAD and the World Intellectual Property Organization.
– The Daily Mail-
Beijing Review news exchange item