With tensions intensifying, a “sixth Middle East war” seems to be taking shape. Israel’s various actions in this round of conflicts not only halt the normalization process in Israeli-Arab relations but also trigger an unprecedented coordinated response from the “axis of resistance” represented by Iran, engaging in direct confrontation with Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen and various Iraqi militia groups have also frequently launched missiles and drones into Israeli territory in an attempt to hinder Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip.
The risks of war loom over the Middle East, but fortunately, up to now, other countries have shunned direct involvement in the conflicts. However, if Iran escalates further, it could truly escalate into a new Middle East war. The impact could be greater than the previous five wars because Iran is a major oil-producing country in the Persian Gulf region. This could trigger a new oil crisis and conflict, but so far, it has not reached that point.
This is partly why Israel’s precision strikes are more about “precise deterrence”, and the US may have played a big role in restraining Israel. The US has stated that it is not participating in the attacks. It should be noted that previous processes also included multiple rounds of consultations between Israel and US officials, including a phone call between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Joe Biden.
The US administration is being extremely cautious to avoid being dragged into the conflict, and Israel is also refraining from such actions. This is why they are playing a balancing act. The US has introduced the THAAD missile defense system in Israel and deployed new F-16 fighter jets in the Middle East operated by American personnel. The THAAD system is providing security guarantees for Israel and also serving as a deterrent against Iran. In short, Israel may currently not be inclined to take extreme actions because it relies on the US for military assistance and security assurances. Israel chose to strike Iran on the Sabbath to achieve a tactical surprise. Hopefully, Israel’s strikes focusing on several military targets outside the capital are more symbolic.
The Middle East needs to restore peace and cannot afford to take bigger risks of war.
