South Korea has a very vibrant and proactive civil society. All you need to do is walk around central Seoul on a Saturday or Sunday near city hall, the US Embassy or the Gyeongbokgung Palace to see South Korean citizens protesting – about just about everything. Some are pro-US and pro-Donald Trump while others take the opposite view.
There are explicit protests and signs admonishing North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, the Chinese Communist Party’s persecution of Falun Gong, Israel’s efforts to stamp out Hamas from Gaza, labor protests for and against the government and much more.
This proactive civil society was an important ballast preventing President Yoon Suk Yeol from imposing martial law on South Korea on Dec. 3. In this sense, Yoon’s recent impeachment highlights the strength of South Korean democracy. Many citizens gathered in central Seoul to demand his impeachment and accountability for what they saw as an illegal declaration.
Meanwhile, pro-Yoon supporters rallied to back his leadership, expressing concern over what a potential presidency of Lee Jae-myung, leader of the opposition Democratic Party (DP), would mean for Seoul-Washington relations, trilateral cooperation between South Korea, Japan and the US and efforts to deter an increasingly hostile North Korea, which has sent troops, munitions and armaments to support Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. South Korea’s flourishing civil society also contributes to a highly divided citizenry, and we can see that division clearly in protests for and against Yoon’s declaration.
Yoon’s party, the People Power Party (PPP), sits center-right on the political spectrum. It advocates for conservative family values, free-market principles, a strong and proactive partnership with the US, and under the Yoon administration, positive, future-oriented relations with Japan while finding ways to deal with sensitive historical issues between the two neighbors, primarily stemming from Japan’s colonization of the Korean Peninsula. In practice, Yoon’s efforts to make South Korea a global pivotal state, or GPS, paid dividends for his country.
Under the August 2023 Camp David Principles framework, Seoul, Tokyo and Washington agreed to enhance their trilateral cooperation to deter North Korean and other aggression. Seoul and Tokyo were able to cooperate within the NATO Indo-Pacific 4 partnership to support Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s invasion and begin the diplomatic work with European and trans-Atlantic partners on building a shared strategic understanding of the threats emanating from authoritarian states in the form of disinformation, cyberattacks and other hybrid tactics. Under Yoon’s GPS initiative, South Korea was welcomed to the May 2023 Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima as an observer and participated in semiconductor production relocation discussions along with Japan, Taiwan, the Netherlands and the US
Still, it’s believed Yoon’s political inexperience – he was the prosecutor general from 2019 to 2021 before becoming president – led to criticism that he ran his government undemocratically. This perception was reinforced by his unilateral declaration of martial law. In contrast to the PPP, the opposition DP party is center-left, supporting greater human rights, improved relations with North Korea and an economic policy described as “new progressivism.” Better relations with North Korea under a potential DP government could resemble the approach taken during the previous Moon Jae-in’s presidency. His government’s efforts were focused on reaching out to Pyongyang to reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula and create conditions for family reunifications, South Korean investments in North Korea’s development, and ultimately, a peace treaty.
During this period of Democratic Party rule, South Korea became unnecessarily antagonistic toward Japan, marked by several incidents that eroded trust between the two countries. One was so-called Japan-South Korea radar lock-on dispute in 2018 where a South Korean naval destroyer allegedly aimed its fire-control radar at a Japanese patrol aircraft near the Noto Peninsula in the Sea of Japan. In July 2019, the Japanese government further strained relations by removing South Korea from its “white list” of countries eligible for preferential trading. Additionally, the foundation established as part of a 2015 bilateral agreement to address the issue of “comfort women,” who suffered under Japan’s military brothel system before and during World War II, was dissolved, deepening tensions. Other disputes during this time also contributed to the breakdown in relations. South Korea’s political divisions and Yoon’s impeachment are already having unwanted consequences, both domestically and abroad. In the short term, no radical shift in foreign policy is expected, as the caretaker president, Han Duck-soo, lacks a democratic mandate to make real changes. In this context, opposition leader Lee could make governance difficult for the acting president if he deviates in foreign policy or adopts policies the opposition fundamentally opposes. Going forward, this will likely mean policy stagnation, as the acting president may hesitate to enact independent domestic or foreign policies. Like in other countries, bureaucracy will either freeze in terms of new initiatives or try to preserve existing gains in the absence of political leadership.
At this stage of what can only be described as a South Korean political “tragedy,” the limits of the acting president’s power and his ability to make consequential foreign policy decisions are still unclear. We will only truly understand the extent of his authority when an internal or external incident occurs, such as a natural disaster or provocation from North Korea, occurs. South Korea’s allies will need to closely monitor domestic political changes there over the next six months as Yoon’s political fate is decided. If the Constitutional Court removes him, an election will be called, likely resulting in a Democratic Party president.
This could lead to a more antagonistic relationship with Tokyo, a distancing from Washington or an attempt to balance between China and the US A shift in foreign policy would likely discard many of Yoon’s signature policies, which would be highly disruptive not only for America, Japan and Taiwan, but for many of South Korea’s allies who view Yoon’s foreign policy as constructive, forward-thinking and balanced. Tokyo must collaborate with its partners to persuade any future South Korean leader that Yoon’s GPS initiative brought significant international recognition as well as economic, political and security benefits domestically. This may involve continuing to invite South Korea to participate in the G7 as an observer state, creating avenues for Seoul to engage with “the Quad” or AUKUS. on a functional, ad-hoc basis, and supporting its bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Providing South Korea with a prominent role in other international organizations can also enhance its self-image, highlighting the tangible benefits of global engagement for its citizens.
